November 1, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes list are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
The seasonal slowdown has set in as anticipated, just like it always does as we cross into November and clocks fall back.
All measures of inventory have dropped since this time last week and the next two weeks will likely see the best of the currently available listings go under contract. Buyer demand has also eased: Buyers are becoming more selective, and some may be waiting until next year at this point, to make a move. This is a great time of year for buyers to make a purchase, especially for homes that have been on the market in excess of 21 days. The best opportunities are likely to be homes that need updating or repairs. Well-priced homes in excellent condition and desirable locations continue to attract strong interest and sell quickly. Hercules is the slowest-moving market in the inner East Bay. If Hercules holds any appeal for you please reach out! El Cerrito is also a good opportunity in the coming month, in my opinion.
Although Berkeley, Oakland, and Richmond are neighbors, their sales figures tell different stories. The median is the middle sale price; the average can be pulled much higher by a few expensive sales. A rising average may therefore reflect the kinds of homes selling, rather than an increase in the value of every home.
I’m seeing a noticeable difference between the market above $2.5 million and the market below $1 million. These charts help illustrate how higher-priced sales influence the overall numbers, although they don’t show which price ranges are selling fastest or attracting the most competition.
Want a closer look at your price range or neighborhood? Reach out, and I’ll prepare custom charts for you.
Berkeley: Homes in the Flats often exceed $1,200 per square foot and sometimes, depending on neighborhood, room count, and condition, exceed $1,500 per square foot, while many Hills properties in higher fire-risk areas trade closer to $800. There’s been a phenomenon, especially in Q3, of the most sought-after homes in Central to North Berkeley increasing by 80% to 100% from list price to sold price. This is a consequence of so few homes being available for purchase in the face of extreme demand from well-qualified buyers, and, in truth, of list prices being set unnecessarily low. The most popular homes sell quickly, in 16 days on average. As always, price per square foot generally declines as home size increases.
Oakland: Last week, the average sold price surged, but it has since calmed down. This was the clearest example of expensive transactions lifting the headline number while the middle sold price remained below $1 million. Averages can give a misleading impression of the experience across the wider market.
Performance varies considerably by neighborhood and price point. Higher-value neighborhoods and homes above $1 million are generally outperforming the sub-$1 million market, with renewed strength in Rockridge and Temescal. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract buyers, while fire-insurance concerns are softening demand in higher-risk hillside areas.
Richmond: The median and average are close together, suggesting that expensive outliers are having less influence on the headline figures. Both remain above late-summer levels.
The most appealing homes continue to sell quickly, while others take longer to find buyers. Richmond’s North & East neighborhood—and especially the Annex—have seen strong buyer demand throughout this year.
Higher mortgage rates could soften demand in the North & East by stretching buyers’ budgets and average days on market for active listings have increased from 70 to 75 over the past week. The Annex may be less affected: buyers there often have larger budgets and are also considering homes in neighboring El Cerrito, where prices are generally higher.
If you are focused on a specific city or neighborhood, please reach out and so we can dig in and get granular.
Note about Berkeley: Zone Zero Defensible Space enforcement rolls-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Opportunities: Pro Tip
Older listings (3 weeks+) that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in.
Open Homes* • The numbers
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes graph are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
Oakland accounts for 56% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 54% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen here.
The Big 3: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Oakland Market Activity • Single-family homes
Oakland Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Berkeley Market Activity • Single-family homes
Berkeley Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Richmond Market Activity • Single-family homes
Richmond Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Price Adjusted Property with a Weekend Open House
Of 221 single family residential homes that have an open house 7 had a price adjustment. Click here for the list. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See more information below on cancellations.
Of 84 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6 had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list. Condo values continue to soften across the Inner East Bay, extending a decline that began in mid-2024.
Condos & Townhomes
Average days on market (DOM) for condos is 82 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 47. It’s difficult to know when condos will find a floor, but my guess is when mortgage rates fall below 6%. Cancellations also matter, with many listings withdrawn after roughly 90 days. More on that below.
For buyers, however, it's an excellent time to shop for a condo or townhouse. For buyers, today's condo market presents excellent opportunities, and a well-chosen condo or townhouse can still be an outstanding long-term investment.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 talking specifically about the Inner East Bay condo market. 🎧Click here to listen. I recorded a 1-year follow-up on the same topic in May 2026. 🎧Click here to listen.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations often reflect sellers withdrawing underperforming or overpriced listings to relist later or rent instead. They can also present opportunities for buyers, although seller expectations may remain unrealistic. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon • Off-market possibilities 😊
Click here for a list of 43 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*. The 4 week average is 42.
Hidden from public search sites, they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you.
This Week's Mortgage Rate News
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Tech, Not the Fed, Bad Pushed Rates to Lowest Level Since September.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that the 30-year mortgage rate will average 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain above 7 percent through 2027.
How’s That Working Out?
Geopolitical tensions, conflict with Iran, concerns around oil prices, and higher bond market yields have pushed rates above 7%. The importance of the bond market and its current condition was wonderfully explained on this September 15, 2026 NY Times ‘The Daily’ Podcast.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898