October 25, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes list are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
Higher mortgage rates appear to be cooling parts of the East Bay market, with lower price ranges feeling the effects more than others.
I believe the next two to three weeks could offer buyers a welcome opportunity. Seasonal demand has eased, buyers are becoming more selective, and some may be waiting until after the election, or perhaps, at this point, next year, to make a move. With more homes available, particularly below $1.5 million, and fewer buyers competing, there is more room for buyers to achieve success.
The best opportunities are likely to be homes that need updating or repairs. Well-priced homes in excellent condition and desirable locations continue to attract strong interest and sell quickly.
Although Berkeley, Oakland, and Richmond are neighbors, their sales figures in the charts below tell different stories. The median is the middle sale price; the average can be pulled much higher by a few expensive sales. A rising average may therefore reflect the kinds of homes selling, rather than an increase in the value of every home.
I’m seeing a noticeable difference between the market above $2.5 million and the market below $1 million. These charts help illustrate how higher-priced sales influence the overall numbers, although they don’t show which price ranges are selling fastest or attracting the most competition.
Want a closer look at your price range or neighborhood? Reach out, and I’ll prepare custom charts for you.
Berkeley: The latest median is approximately $1.97 million, compared with an average of $2.35 million. Both have risen since early October, suggesting a shift toward more expensive homes among recent sales, with higher-end transactions giving the average an additional lift. That does not necessarily mean comparable homes have appreciated by the same amount. Homes in the Flats often exceed $1,200 per square foot, while many Hills properties in higher fire-risk areas trade closer to $800. There’s been a phenomenon recently of the most sought after homes in Central to North Berkeley increasing by 80% to 100% from list price to sold price. This is a consequence of so few homes being available for purchase in the face of extreme demand from well qualified buyers, and, in truth, of list prices being set unnecessarily low. The best homes sell quickly - in 16 days on average, but hillside buyers remain marginally selective. As always, price per square foot generally declines as home size increases.
Oakland: The median has returned to approximately $950,000, down from roughly $1.15 million in the previous snapshot. Meanwhile, the average has surged. This is the clearest example of expensive transactions lifting the headline number while the middle sale remains below $1 million. The average gives a misleading impression of the experience across the wider market.
Performance varies considerably by neighborhood and price point. Higher-value neighborhoods and homes above $1 million are generally outperforming the sub-$1 million market, with renewed strength in Rockridge and Temescal. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract buyers, while fire-insurance concerns are softening demand in higher-risk hillside areas.
Richmond: The median and average are close together, at approximately $778,000 and $770,000. That suggests expensive outliers are having less influence on the headline figures. Both remain above late-summer levels
The most appealing homes continue to sell quickly, while others take longer to find buyers. Richmond’s North & East neighborhood—and especially the Annex—have seen strong buyer demand throughout this year.
Higher mortgage rates could soften demand in the North & East by stretching buyers’ budgets. The Annex may be less affected: buyers there often have larger budgets and are also considering homes in neighboring El Cerrito, where prices are generally higher.
If you are focused on a specific city or neighborhood, please reach out and so we can dig in and get granular.
Note about Berkeley: Zone Zero Defensible Space enforcement rolls-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Opportunities: Pro Tip
Older listings (3 weeks+) that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in.
Open Homes* • The numbers
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes graph are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
Oakland accounts for 56% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 54% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen here.
The Big 3: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Oakland Market Activity • Single-family homes
Oakland Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Berkeley Market Activity • Single-family homes
Berkeley Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Richmond Market Activity • Single-family homes
Richmond Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Price Adjusted Property with a Weekend Open House
Of 275 single family residential homes that have an open house 17 had a price adjustment. That’s a higher number than we’ve seen in the past month. Click here for the list. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See more information below on cancellations.
Of 101 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6 had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list. Condo values continue to soften across the Inner East Bay, extending a decline that began in mid-2024.
Condos & Townhomes
Average days on market (DOM) for condos is 82 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 44. It’s difficult to know when condos will find a floor, but my guess is when mortgage rates fall below 6%. Cancellations also matter, with many listings withdrawn after roughly 90 days. More on that below.
For buyers, however, it's an excellent time to shop for a condo or townhouse. For buyers, today's condo market presents excellent opportunities, and a well-chosen condo or townhouse can still be an outstanding long-term investment.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 talking specifically about the Inner East Bay condo market. 🎧Click here to listen. I recorded a 1-year follow-up on the same topic in May 2026. 🎧Click here to listen.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations often reflect sellers withdrawing underperforming or overpriced listings to relist later or rent instead. They can also present opportunities for buyers, although seller expectations may remain unrealistic. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon • Off-market possibilities
Click here for a list of 40 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*.
The 4 week average is 45.5. Hidden from public search sites, they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you.
This Week's Mortgage Rate News
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Tech’s Bad Week Spelled Good News For Rates.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that the 30-year mortgage rate will average 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain above 7 percent through 2027.
How’s That Working Out?
Geopolitical tensions, conflict with Iran, concerns around oil prices, and higher bond market yields have pushed rates above 7%. The importance of the bond market and its current condition was wonderfully explained on this September 15, 2026 NY Times ‘The Daily’ Podcast.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898