october 4 East Bay Real Estate weekend UpdatE
October 4, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes list are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
We’ve likely passed the post-Labor Day inventory peak. Despite higher mortgage rates over the past two weeks, homes continue to go under contract at a healthy pace, as the narrowing gap between active and pending listings in the charts below suggests. The number of “Coming Soon” listings is also declining (see below).
One measure to watch is Richmond’s days on market, which has edged up. It’s too early to tell whether this is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a slowdown.
Berkeley: Berkeley’s average and median sale prices fell sharply this past week, reflecting the absence of higher-value homes from the sales mix. The drop tells us more about the types of homes that sold and their locations than it does about the strength of the broader market. Buyer competition remains the strongest in Berkeley over any other East Bay city although the market is sharply divided. Homes in the Flats often exceed $1,200 per square foot, while many Hills properties in higher fire-risk areas trade closer to $800. There’s been a phenomenon recently of the most sought after homes in Central to North Berkeley increasing by more than 100% from list price to sold price. This is a consequence of so few homes being available for purchase in the face of extreme demand from well qualified buyers, and, in truth, of list prices being set unnecessarily low. The best homes sell quickly - in 15 days on average, but hillside buyers remain more selective. As always, price per square foot generally declines as home size increases.
Oakland: Performance varies considerably by neighborhood and price point. Higher-value neighborhoods and homes above $1 million are generally outperforming the sub-$1 million market, with renewed strength in Rockridge and Temescal. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract buyers, while fire-insurance concerns are softening demand in higher-risk hillside areas.
Richmond: The best homes continue to sell quickly, while less compelling inventory takes longer to find buyers. Demand is particularly strong in Richmond North & East and especially the Annex, where inventory has been very tight, and listings have averaged double digit offers with sale prices easily surpassing last year’s highs.
If you are focused on a specific city or neighborhood, please reach out and so we can dig in and get granular.
Note about Berkeley: Zone Zero Defensible Space enforcement rolls-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Opportunities: Pro Tip
Older listings (3 weeks+) that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in.
Open Homes* • The numbers
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes graph are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
Oakland accounts for 55% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 53% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen here.
The Big 3: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Oakland Market Activity • Single-family homes
Oakland Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Berkeley Market Activity • Single-family homes
Berkeley Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Richmond Market Activity • Single-family homes
Richmond Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Price Adjusted Property with a Weekend Open House
Of 270 single family residential homes that have an open house 12 had a price adjustment. Click here for the list. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See more information below on cancellations.
Of 98 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6 had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list. Condo values continue to soften across the Inner East Bay, extending a decline that began in mid-2024.
Condos & Townhomes
Average days on market (DOM) for condos is 81 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 51. It’s difficult to know when condos will find a floor, but my guess is when mortgage rates fall below 6%. Cancellations also matter, with many listings withdrawn after roughly 90 days. More on that below.
For buyers, however, it's an excellent time to shop for a condo or townhouse. For buyers, today's condo market presents excellent opportunities, and a well-chosen condo or townhouse can still be an outstanding long-term investment.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 talking specifically about the Inner East Bay condo market. 🎧Click here to listen. I recorded a 1-year follow-up on the same topic in May 2026. 🎧Click here to listen.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations often reflect sellers withdrawing underperforming or overpriced listings to relist later or rent instead. They can also present opportunities for buyers, although seller expectations may remain unrealistic. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon • Off-market possibilities
Click here for a list of 44 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*.
The 4 week average is 54. Hidden from public search sites, they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you.
This Week's Mortgage Rate News
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Why Rates Didn’t Fall After This Weeks Jobs Report.
The importance of the bond market and its current condition was wonderfully explained on this September 15, 2026 NY Times ‘The Daily’ Podcast.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
It’s not working out at all well due to the Iran War and the growing US deficit. In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, conflict with Iran, and concerns around oil prices, and amazingly and more recently, AI investment over bond investment, have pushed rates to 7.5% in recent weeks. The swings along the way have been significant.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
The importance of the bond market and its current condition was wonderfully explained on this September 15, 2026 NY Times ‘The Daily’ Podcast.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898