FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026
Anything Spooky Happening In Here? Two Berkeleys, One Housing Market
By Declan Spring
Walkability, insurance, move-in-ready homes, and changing city requirements are shaping buyers’ choices. My conversation with Megan Micco explores what it means for you.
How can one Berkeley home attract intense competition while another struggles to find its buyer?
The answer starts with something citywide market statistics can easily obscure: buyers are having very different experiences depending on where they’re looking, what they need, and how much uncertainty they’re willing to take on. For the most recent episode of The East Bay Real Estate Podcast, I welcomed back Megan Micco, an agent deeply connected to Berkeley, Kensington, and North Oakland. We looked back at the first half of 2026, comparing my reading of the market with her experience working with buyers and sellers.
What emerged was a conversation about much more than prices. We explored how people want to live, what makes them hesitate, and why certain homes inspire an immediate “yes.”
🎧 Click here to listen to my conversation with Megan Micco here:
One of the strongest themes in our conversation is the pull of Berkeley’s flatter, walkable neighborhoods. For many buyers, being able to walk to coffee, groceries, parks, and neighborhood shops is central to the decision. They’re choosing the shape of their daily lives as much as the house itself. Megan describes buyers coming from different directions: homeowners moving down from the hills with substantial equity, and young families searching for that elusive three-bedroom, two-bath home in a neighborhood they love. Those buyers can find themselves competing for the same property. A comfortable layout, manageable outdoor space, and errands within walking distance can appeal across generations.
Looking ahead to 2027
We also unpack Berkeley’s updated BESO requirements, including energy upgrades, buyer deferrals, and the $5,000 deposit, along with practical considerations for electrification. Looking ahead, we discuss the January 2027 Measure W transfer tax changes and proposed adjustments to the Bay Area’s water-heater rules, scheduled for a November 4 vote. It’s useful context for anyone buying, selling, or planning improvements to their Berkeley home.
Have a question about your home or your corner of the Inner East Bay? I’d love to hear from you! declan@thehomefactor.com
The Home Factor. The East Bay real estate team people keep. 👉 Take a look at the refreshed website!
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes (both charts)
The Housing Factor: q3
THE STATE OF THE MARKET
By Ehsan Habib
Inner East Bay Home Prices Rise, but Local Markets Tell Different Stories
The Inner East Bay housing market in 2026 has largely been shaped by limited inventory and strong buyer demand. Overall, prices have risen and homes have sold more quickly across much of the region. But those broad trends don’t tell the whole story. Conditions vary considerably by city, neighborhood, and price range, with some parts of the market performing much more strongly than others.
The third-quarter figures illustrate that divide: the combined median sale price across the cities surveyed rose 14.3% from a year earlier to $1 million, with Berkeley up 6.5%. Yet El Cerrito and Richmond recorded declines. The median also reflects the mix of homes sold, so an increase doesn’t necessarily mean every home gained value.
Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, and Kensington have consistently remained strong markets this year. El Cerrito has seen some softening in prices, but buyer demand remains healthy. During the third quarter, it averaged just over one month of available inventory. That means buyers would purchase all the homes currently for sale in roughly a month if the recent sales pace continued and no new listings came onto the market.
Oakland has become more competitive for buyers compared with last year. New listings were down 3.7%, while sales declined by only 0.6%. Homes also sold more quickly: the average time to find a buyer fell from 36 days to 27 days, while the median fell from 18 days to 13 days. In other words, half of the homes that sold were under contract within 13 days.
Richmond’s balance between available inventory and sales also improved, although some indicators suggest softer buyer demand. Both Oakland and Richmond have a wide variety of neighborhoods, so citywide figures can mask very different experiences from one area to another.
Farther north, El Sobrante, Hercules, and Pinole all recorded higher median sale prices in the third quarter compared with a year earlier. However, their sales activity tells a more varied story.
Hercules has seen a significant slowdown in demand. New listings were down 16.2% compared with last year, while sales fell much more sharply.
In Pinole, new listings declined by 55% and sales fell by 45.8%. Despite fewer homes coming onto the market, the supply of unsold homes remains relatively high.
El Sobrante recorded a sizable increase in its median sale price, but it has also faced a persistent buildup of unsold homes this year. Homes that sold in September took an average of 36 days to find a buyer, the longest among the cities surveyed. San Pablo was close behind at 34 days.
Whether you’re buying or selling, if you would like a closer look at the cities and neighborhoods that you are most interested in - or for our opinion on how we’re seeing the market shape up on the ground - reach out to the friendly Home Factor Realtor of your choice. We’re always happy to hear from you! Or simply email me directly at Ehsan@TheHomeFactor.com
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Mortgage Musings – Trick Or Treat On Mortgage Street
Ready to trade the tricks for a treat? Maybe you’re house hunting. Maybe you’re peeking at the market from behind the curtains. Maybe you’re helping a family member brew up a plan. Either way, I’d love to help. Email me at evelyn.freitas@rate.com, and let’s conjure up a real preapproval, the kind that holds up in the daylight of underwriting. No tricks, just the treat of owning a home with the right mortgage plan.
The jack-o’-lanterns flicker low,
The crows line up to stare;
And every house on Mortgage Street
Has something in the air.
The Wolfman howls of rising rents,
The Mummy guards repairs;
While headline ghosts and fine-print traps
Bring buyers fresh nightmares.
And Dracula, the smooth-voiced Count,
Hands out a “yes” at night;
But unchecked preapprovals fade
In underwriting’s light.
My team brings decades to the trade,
With underwriters near;
We tackle loans for unique homes
With confidence, not fear.
The nightmares fade like morning mist,
The shadows all have flown;
The sweetest treat: a key, a door,
A home that’s yours alone.
So leave the tricks out in the dark
And knock upon my door;
The porch light’s on, the candy’s out,
And home’s worth knocking for.
Happy House Haunting!
Are you waiting on a rate, or a home that feels right? Email me at evelyn.freitas@rate.com, and I'll show you payment options at today's rates and help you build a plan around your family and financial goals. A quick conversation can save you time, money, and stress.
Rooting Bay Area Creatives:
CalHome & Artist Space Assistance
By Matt Szemela and Rebecca Wilcox
Rooting Bay Area Creatives: How CalHome & Artist Space Trust Bridge the Gap to Homeownership
Our previous careers in music and the arts not only gave us a lifelong appreciation for the creative community, but they also taught us how essential artists are to the culture and spirit of a place. But in one of the nation's most competitive housing markets, saving for a traditional down payment while running an active creative practice often makes homeownership feel entirely out of reach.
That’s why we are so excited to see a powerful financing bridge in action right here in our backyard. A partnership between Artist Space Trust (AST) and Northern California Land Trust (NCLT) brings real, tangible support dedicated to helping local creatives plant permanent roots.
The CalHome Down Payment Assistance (DPA) Program offers eligible low-income artists and first-time buyers up to $200,000 (or up to 40% of the purchase price) toward single-family homes, townhomes, or condos. Structured as a deferred, low-interest second mortgage, it requires zero monthly principal or interest payments—repayment is simply due when the home is eventually sold down the road. Buyers contribute just 3% of their own funds toward the purchase price.
AST has already distributed over $500,000 in assistance as of December 2025, and up to $1.5 million in CalHome DPA funding remains available for qualifying artists looking to buy before November 30, 2026. Eligibility requires a gross household income at or below 80% of the Area Median Income (AMI), an active artistic practice, and completion of an 8-hour HUD-certified homebuyer course.
We’re currently working with an artist client who successfully applied for this program. Thanks to this incredible resource, we are now actively searching for their first home in Alameda County.
We have the honor of helping to build, protect, and nurture the community we all call home. Helping our fellow artists find a place to live, create, and thrive is a deeply personal part of that mission.
Whether you’re an artist looking to explore your path to homeownership, or just want to chat about your next move, we are always here as your resource. Feel free to reach out anytime at matt@thehomefactor.com or becca@thehomefactor.com.
substack: why our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
THE REAL ESTATE TEAM YOU KEEP
Everyone Can Search. Our Clients Have Someone to Call
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com · (415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com · (510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com · (510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
Matt Szemela · Matt@thehomefactor.com · (646) 528-5783 · DRE#02241673
Becca Wilcox · Becca@thehomefactor.com · (510) 996-8747 · DRE#02241574
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591
