Monthly report · No.28
FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2026
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
The Defining Story of the Inner East Bay Real Estate Market in 2026
The defining story of the Inner East Bay market in 2026 has been remarkably consistent: fewer homes for sale, more active buyers, and increasingly intense competition for the best properties. June continued that pattern, while the full second-quarter data shows just how quickly the market has tightened.
Compared with June 2025, 6.3% fewer homes came to market, yet closed sales increased by 10.8%. The median time required to sell a home fell from 16 days to just 14. Most significantly, the gap between the number of homes available and the number being purchased is narrower than we have ever seen at this time of year as demonstarted by the narrowing gap in the graph above.
For sellers, that has translated into an exceptionally strong summer across the Inner East Bay. Even cities that struggled with excess inventory last year have improved dramatically.
El Sobrante recorded a 44% year-over-year increase in closed sales, while its absorption rate, the share of available homes purchased during the month, jumped from 33% to 71%. Richmond’s absorption rate rose by the same striking margin, from 33% to 71%. Oakland also gained considerable ground: sales increased by 9% even as the number of new listings declined by 14%. In Hercules, homes sold in an average of just eight days.
Taken together, these figures point to a market in which buyer demand is not merely holding steady. It is rapidly catching up with, and in some areas overtaking, the available supply.
Q2: What the Second Quarter Sold Data Reveals
For sellers, that has translated into an exceptionally strong summer across the Inner East Bay. Even cities that struggled with excess inventory last year have improved dramatically.
El Sobrante recorded a 44% year-over-year increase in closed sales, while its absorption rate, the share of available homes purchased during the month, jumped from 33% to 71%. Richmond’s absorption rate rose by the same striking margin, from 33% to 71%. Oakland also gained considerable ground: sales increased by 9% even as the number of new listings declined by 14%. In Hercules, homes sold in an average of just eight days.
Taken together, these figures point to a market in which buyer demand is not merely holding steady. It is rapidly catching up with, and in some areas overtaking, the available supply.
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes (both charts)
A Remarkable Feature of the 2026 Real Estate Market
Zooming out to the full second quarter makes the imbalance between supply and demand even clearer. Compared with Q2 of 2025, 15.4% fewer homes came to market, yet the total number of closed sales still increased by 2.5%. More homes sold, even though buyers had considerably fewer properties to choose from.
The median list price remained unchanged at $899,000, but the median sale price increased by 3.5%. Homes sold for a median of 17% above asking price, compared with 13% during the same period last year. The averages tell a similar story: the average list price declined slightly, by 0.7%, while the average sale price rose by 4.7%.
These figures clearly reflect the strength of the current sellers’ market, but I believe they reveal something else as well. The Inner East Bay’s notorious custom of deliberately pricing homes below their anticipated market value appears to have become even more entrenched. Asking prices are increasingly serving as a starting point for competition rather than a reliable indication of where a home is expected to sell.
harmony across borders: how our network serves you anywhere
By Matt Szemela and Rebecca Wilcox
Connections That Travel: From the Bay Area to Bangkok
Our previous careers in chamber music not only gifted us with some of our most cherished relationships, but also allowed us to practice our art around the world. Honestly, we weren’t expecting our real estate careers to offer the exact same experiences. But recently we were reminded that true connections make lasting impressions, and we’ve learned that our support for our clients knows no geographic boundaries.
About a year ago, we were covering an open house for a fellow agent. One of the visitors that afternoon was a composer that Matt had worked with about 10 years prior. A friendship was rekindled, and we were honored to help him and his partner find their perfect home a few months later! Recently, they reached out to us with a unique query: could we help them sell their condo in Bangkok, Thailand?
While our licenses keep us rooted right here in California, our professional network extends much further. We jumped into action, tapping into our global circles to connect directly with the principal broker of a top-tier firm deeply established in Bangkok’s condominium market. After talking through our clients’ unique goals to ensure every detail would be thoughtfully handled, we placed them in trusted, expert hands.
Much like synchronizing escrow, title, and inspections locally, our goal is to handle the background noise so you feel completely supported—no matter the distance. Nothing brings us more joy than being a steady anchor for our clients long after the local ink has dried. Whether you’re moving across the street, managing family property in another state, or navigating a move across the globe, offering that peace of mind is at the heart of our relational approach. We’ve got your back—wherever life takes you.
If you ever need a trusted referral, advice on managing out-of-area real estate, or just a sounding board for your next move, please reach out to us anytime at matt@thehomefactor.com or becca@thehomefactor.com.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Many of the conversations I’ve had lately open the same way: “What are your rates?”
That’s a fair question, and in fairness, the mortgage industry taught you to ask it. Lenders advertise a number. Headlines chase that number hourly. Rate has become shorthand for the entire mortgage, and everything else has faded into the background.
It’s a fair question, but it might not be the right one. Until your offer is accepted, you have no rate at all. You have a pre-approval and a lender standing behind it, and during the stretch that decides whether you land it, what carries real weight is decisiveness, speed, precision, and certainty: how quickly your file moves, how airtight your approval reads to a listing agent, whether your lender answers the phone on a Sunday.
Shant Banosian, President of Rate, published a post recently along these lines. He pointed at numbers that look bleak on the surface: millions of young adults living with their parents, first-time buyers making up the smallest slice of the market ever recorded. The easy conclusion is that ownership has slipped out of reach; his read is different, and I share it — the old playbook may have changed, but the game goes on.
The information that almost never makes headlines is worth considering: what actually changes when you get the keys. The wall you paint any color you like. The dog. The garden planted by someone planning to stay. A housing payment that holds steady while rents around you climb. Knowing which school your children attend in five years, because that choice belongs to you now.
And underneath all of it, something quieter is happening. Every payment shifts a little more of the house from the bank’s column into yours. Markets move in both directions, and nobody can promise a straight line. Over a stretch of years, though, homes have generally gained value, and whoever holds the keys collects that gain. Wait three years and buy the same house, and you hand the seller the equity that could have been sitting in your column. Same house, different name on the gain.
That’s where affordability strategies earn their keep — specialized loan programs, seller concessions, and other options that ease those first years. These tools help you buy at a comfortable payment. Keeping track of them is my job, so your attention stays on what matters: your life happening inside the house.
If any of this raises a question, that’s exactly the point. No question is too small, and a twenty-minute conversation can turn up options not yet considered.
Rates rise and fall, and a rate can be revisited later. The years lost by waiting are the one thing you’ll never get back.
Curious about how this applies to you?
Email me at evelyn.freitas@rate.com and we can discuss your situation and vision — income, savings, timeline, and where you picture yourself in three years.
Evelyn Freitas, NMLS #247578, Guaranteed Rate Inc, NMLS #2611
A most interesting metric: why our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Introducing the Market Pulse!
Rather than focusing on the ups and downs of a single week, the new Market Pulse charts for Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond track the rolling two-week average and median sold price for single-family homes. Updating the charts weekly while looking back over the prior two weeks helps smooth out short-term fluctuations and provides a more reliable view of price trends. The sample size for each period is shown along the bottom (n = number of sales) so you can see how many transactions contributed to each data point.
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay? Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
THE REAL ESTATE TEAM YOU KEEP
Everyone Can Search. Our Clients Have Someone to Call
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com · (415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com · (510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com · (510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
Matt Szemela · Matt@thehomefactor.com · (646) 528-5783 · DRE#02241673
Becca Wilcox · Becca@thehomefactor.com · (510) 996-8747 · DRE#02241574
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591