Monthly report · No.27
MONDAY, JUNE 26, 2026
A NEW CHAPTER FOR THE HOME FACTOR
By Declan Spring
We're excited to share a fresh new look for The Home Factor and, even more importantly, to welcome two outstanding new team members, Matt and Becca Wilcox.
In a market where East Bay inventory remains roughly 30% lower than this time last year, we're especially grateful to be growing. Their arrival strengthens our ability to serve buyers, sellers, and homeowners while staying true to the philosophy that has guided us from the beginning.
The Home Factor was built on a simple belief: a home is more than an asset. It provides stability, identity, and opportunity, while also requiring thoughtful care and good decision-making. Our role is to help clients navigate those decisions with clarity and confidence.
Whether someone is buying a first home, preparing a longtime family property for sale, inheriting a home, or simply wondering what to do next, our first job is often to reduce the pressure. We help people understand what matters now, what can wait, and how to make decisions they'll feel good about for years to come.
That philosophy now extends across an even stronger team. Declan Spring brings market knowledge and long-term ownership strategy. Denitsa Shopova combines design expertise with a keen understanding of how homes connect emotionally with buyers. Ehsan contributes financial analysis and disciplined pricing strategy. Matt and Becca are exceptional collaborators who help keep every transaction organized, responsive, and client-focused. Different strengths. One shared standard.
The Home Factor isn't just here for the transaction. We're here before it begins and long after it closes, helping clients care for one of the most important relationships they'll ever have: their home.
The Home Factor. The East Bay real estate team people keep. Take a look at the refreshed website!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay? Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
Market Trends Continue Apace
The trends found in the May data show strong continuity with previous months. Low inventory and strong (yet uneven) demand has fostered high prices.
May 2026 had 1.53 Months Supply of Inventory* for our subject area vs May 2025’s 2.27 Months Supply of Inventory. This has less to do with more homes going under contract (there were 2% fewer sales YoY**) and more to do with insufficient supply. There was a 18.5% drop in the number of new listings in May of 2026 vs May 2025.
As always, the data and trends are granular and different for each city, each neighborhood, and each home. If you have any questions about your specific situation — whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand what your home is worth in this environment — reach out anytime. I’m always happy to talk through the numbers.
Looking ahead, the East Bay market has entered one of its most overlooked seasons. As summer vacations begin, buyer activity typically softens, creating a brief window of opportunity before the market regains momentum in late August. In this month's market outlook, we explain what's happening now, what we expect over the next four weeks, and why this quieter period may benefit both buyers and sellers. Read the full article here: The East Bay Market’s Hidden Window.
You can reach out directly to me at ehsan@thehomefactor.com
*The rate at which active inventory would be consumed by the last 30 days of buyer activity. **Year-over-Year - comparing April 2026 vs April 2025
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Summertime Mortgage Musings - Mortgage rates have been on quite a roller coaster lately, and that’s been the cause of understandable frustration for homebuyers. Rates were slowly drifting into the low 6 percent range before geopolitical tensions shifted everything. The war in Iran sent rates higher and they've stayed there. What does that mean for you? Let me share some smart moves I'm seeing successful homebuyers make right now.
What's Driving All This Craziness?
Several factors are in play right now. The Federal Reserve is tasked with managing inflation, which directly shapes mortgage rates. Economic reports on employment, inflation data, and consumer spending trigger instant market reactions and play into the Fed’s decisions. Bond investors constantly guess what comes next, and since mortgage rates move with the 10-year Treasury bond, global conditions also play a role.
Trade concerns, geopolitical tensions, and what other countries’ central banks do with interest rates also ripple through the system. These global events can also cause inflation concerns. Rising tensions disrupt supply chains, increase commodity prices, and fuel inflationary pressures worldwide. Global inflation worries push central banks toward higher rates, which directly impacts mortgage rates here at home.
What Smart Homebuyers Are Actually Doing
Buyers experiencing success right now are avoiding the paralysis that can come from interest rate uncertainty. They're taking action—and many are getting clever about summer timing. Buying during summer months is genuinely strategic. Sellers who listed in the spring often feel more motivated by early summer, creating real negotiating room. Closing before school starts means your kids settle into their new community and explore schools before September. No mid-year disruptions.
Getting pre-approved early shows sellers you're genuinely ready and qualified. It's a power move not to be overlooked.
Thinking creatively about your search opens doors. Expand slightly beyond your original neighborhood or consider homes with better long-term value. This flexibility changes everything. Building your financial foundation matters. Work on your credit score, pay down debt, or save for a bigger down payment – these are all moves that can improve the terms of your mortgage.
Let's Make This Happen!
Here's what I want you to remember most: your homeownership goals matter far more than current interest rates or what's happening globally. Yes, geopolitics impact rates, but your family's dream of owning a home, your vision of a place to call yours, the stability you want to build – that’s what truly matters. The right home at a reasonable rate, in a timeline that works for your life, is what counts.
Summer gives families a real edge for school transitions and community roots. Your home is one of life's biggest investments. Focus on what's in your control: your financial readiness, your credit health, and your commitment to making this happen.
If you’ve got questions about how this information impacts your home ownership plans, please reach out anytime at evelyn.freitas@rate.com—let's get you home.
Playing well with others: Why We Joined the Home factor
By Matt Szemela and Rebecca Wilcox
If you had told us a few years ago that our path from the concert hall to the East Bay real estate market would feel entirely seamless, we might have paused. But after decades spent playing chamber music—where success depends on listening deeply, anticipating needs, and creating a safe space—we discovered that guiding people through major life transitions resonates in the exact same way.
But wait, let's fast-forward through some key details: We’re Matt and Becca. We met at a wedding gig overlooking Tomales Bay in 2019, reconnected in 2021, fell in love, and got married in 2023. Soon after, wanting to provide greater stability for a future family, we realized our careers needed to evolve.
Choosing a path outside of music was monumental. Music was our passion, community, and home. Looking back at our favorite memories, the highlight wasn't the touring or the late nights. It was looking into the audience and seeing people fully engaged, their worldly troubles melting away. Helping people find their safe space was the honor of a lifetime, and we knew our new career had to keep that spirit of service at its core.
When we spoke with some close friends from the music world who had recently transitioned into residential real estate, our path forward became crystal clear. The venues would change, but our purpose wouldn't. Today, we take the coordination skills honed by years of artistic collaborations and apply them directly to your real estate journey—synchronizing everything between escrow, lenders, title, and inspectors. We handle the background noise so you feel entirely supported, whether you're navigating a complex move or just wondering about a weird crack in a ceiling. We have your back.
When we launched our practice, we vowed to focus entirely on relationships. Crossing paths with Declan and Denitsa felt like finding our perfect ensemble. Declan’s advice was simple: "Build your business relationally, not transactionally." Just like that, we found our people. We are elated to have found our new home with The Home Factor!
When they aren't helping clients navigate the Bay Area market, Matt (an East Bay resident since 2011) and Becca (born and raised in Berkeley) can be found strolling through redwood groves or around Lake Merritt with their toddler Simon, cooking up serious kitchen flavors, or playing music of nearly every genre. They would love to connect—reach out anytime at matt@thehomefactor.com or becca@thehomefactor.com.
podcast rebrand
By Declan Spring
“The Mostly Real Estate Podcast” is now “The East Bay Real Estate Podcast”.
What started as a pandemic project has grown into something bigger, something worth keeping. And something worth naming what it really is!
Over the years, my podcast has gone by a few different names, beginning with Let's Talk with Declan Spring before evolving into The Mostly Real Estate Podcast. But somewhere along the way, something interesting happened. The show found its identity. Today, it has become the East Bay's leading real estate podcast, featuring thoughtful conversations with many of the people shaping our local market. As I begin expanding the show onto YouTube and other platforms, it feels like the right time to call it exactly what it is:
The East Bay Real Estate Podcast.
Each episode features conversations with top real estate agents, lenders, developers, historians, architects, and other local voices who help explain how our market really works. From pricing strategy and buyer behavior to neighborhood dynamics, local history, and industry trends, the podcast explores the people, ideas, and stories behind East Bay real estate.
If you haven't listened yet, I'd love for you to join us. Click here to find your listening platform
SUBSTACK: WHY our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
👉 Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
THE HOME FACTOR ON YOUTUBE!
Our YouTube channel offers short, real-world videos showing how we transform and market the older homes we represent. Subscribe—and feel free to share it with anyone considering a sale who wants to see how we guide older homes into newer hands.
👉 Click here to subscribe to our YouTube Channel for some behind the scenes magic..
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
THE REAL ESTATE TEAM YOU KEEP
Everyone Can Search. Our Clients Have Someone to Call
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com · (415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com · (510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com · (510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
Matt Szemela · Matt@thehomefactor.com · (646) 528-5783 · DRE#02241673
Becca Wilcox · Becca@thehomefactor.com · (510) 996-8747 · DRE#02241574
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591