Monthly report · No.29
FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2026
SPOTLIGHT ON BERKELEY:
A TALE OF TWO MARKETS
By Declan Spring
We are constantly asked what homes are selling for per square foot. It is a reasonable question, but we are always hesitant to give a quick answer because price per square foot is an imperfect way to predict what an individual home might sell for.
Condition, architecture, location, lot usability, views, insurance costs and even the quality of the floor plan can matter just as much as square footage. Still, price per square foot can be revealing when used to examine broader market patterns. As part of my homework for an upcoming episode of The East Bay Real Estate Podcast, I analyzed 233 recent Berkeley home sales, dividing them into 163 homes outside high-fire-risk areas and 70 within them.
The results reveal a noticeable divide:
Outside high-fire-risk areas: $1,052 per square foot
High-fire-risk areas: $766 per square foot
That difference is partly explained by home size. The average home in the high-fire-risk areas was 2,597 square feet, compared with 1,699 square feet elsewhere. Larger homes typically sell for less per square foot. Insurance costs and buyer preferences also matter, particularly as coverage in the Berkeley Hills becomes more difficult and expensive to obtain.
Homes outside the high-fire-risk areas also sold an average of 34.7% over asking, compared with 19% in the high-fire-risk areas. Both groups averaged 20 days on the market, suggesting that homes throughout Berkeley sold quickly, but competition was more intense in the flatter neighborhoods. This does not mean price per square foot can tell us what any particular home is worth. It cannot. But it does help illustrate how dramatically buyer behavior can vary within one relatively small city.
Click here to see the full Berkeley market research and side-by-side findings.
I’ll bring more context and nuance to these findings in an upcoming podcast episode. The numbers are interesting, but understanding what is driving them is where the real conversation begins. EWe’ll also discuss the upcoming cost increase for Berkeley City Transfer Taxes for January, 2027.
The Home Factor. The East Bay real estate team people keep. Take a look at the refreshed website!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay? Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
THE STATE OF THE MARKET
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
Although interest rates climbed throughout July, the housing market continued to improve, showing stronger metrics compared with July 2025, with the familiar exception of inventory. As has been the case every month this year, July saw a decrease in the number of listings coming to market compared with July 2025 (465 versus 513, a 9.4% year-over-year decrease¹).
Given the constrained supply and desirability of Bay Area real estate, it is no surprise that the median sale price increased by 14.2%. The median list price increased by only 5.9%. The median home sold for 114% of its list price in July 2026, compared with 106% in July 2025. The average list price actually declined by 1%, while the average sale price increased by 6.7%, meaning the average home sold for 118.8% of its list price in July 2026, compared with 110% in July 2025. This is evidence that buyer activity is exceeding sellers’ expectations.
The market also continues to move at a faster pace. Average DOM² improved from 34 days in July 2025 to 27 days in July 2026. Median DOM improved from 18 days to 14 days. I hesitate to use the word “healthy” to describe our housing market, as there is nothing healthy about how expensive housing has become for large segments of the population. However, the improvement in the absorption rate³ does indicate a healthier market. When interest rates rose sharply in 2022, we experienced an adjustment period as market values had to account for the higher cost of borrowing money. The fact that homes are selling faster is evidence that there are enough buyers who can afford the prices sellers are expecting. Supply and demand appear to be reaching equilibrium.
Some markets experience more volatility than others. Hercules, Richmond and Pinole are the only three cities that had an absorption rate of 50% or less, meaning it would take two or more months of buyer activity to absorb every listing on the market. At the other extreme is Albany, which saw 10 sales in July while only four new homes were listed that month.
As always, the data and trends are granular and differ for each city, neighborhood and home. If you have questions about your specific situation, whether you are looking to buy, sell or simply understand what your home is worth in this environment, reach out anytime. We are always happy to talk through the numbers.
You can email me directly at Ehsan@TheHomeFactor.com
¹ Year-over-year
² Days on market
³ The rate at which active inventory would be consumed based on the previous 30 days of buyer activity. This ratio demonstrates supply and demand. A higher number indicates a stronger seller’s market.
small world, deep roots:
the power of shared community
By Matt Szemela and Rebecca Wilcox
In real estate, a common refrain is “Location, Location, Location!” But lately, we’ve been reflecting more on Connection. Over the past few weeks, surprising coincidences have been popping up in our lives, reminding us just how interconnected our community really is.
It all started at a recent property showing we did for our teammates’ clients. It was a family affair. As our 19-month-old son played alongside their toddlers, we realized that all three kids were born at the same hospital just days apart. They had likely shared the same nursery floor, prompting us to laugh and remark to ourselves, “It’s a family reunion!”
Shortly thereafter, following the heartbreaking loss of the great Irish musician Glen Hansard, Becca was reminiscing with Declan about meeting Glen during her touring days with the band Iron and Wine (who shared the same manager). Declan surprised us by revealing his own connection: he used to live a few doors down from where Glen’s first band practiced. From Dublin to the Bay Area, the music plays on.
Most recently, Matt was on his weekly broker tour inspecting local inventory and bumped into a prominent agent he hadn't seen in years—someone he originally met through a mutual friend on Peaks Island, Maine, long before our real estate careers began. They were both surprised and pleased to reconnect within the world of Bay Area Real Estate, and a friendship was rekindled.
Are these moments just wild coincidences? Or do our shared values, histories, and experiences naturally draw us together? We like to think it’s a bit of both. We find our people—and our community—intentionally, even if unconsciously.
For us, real estate has never been just about transactions; it’s about the privilege of building and nurturing community. Every relationship we forge is built on intertwining pasts and shared futures, reminding us why we love what we do. And our community is a gift that we love to share!
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply want to swap stories about this remarkably small world, we are always here as a resource. Feel free to reach out anytime at matt@thehomefactor.com or becca@thehomefactor.com.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Time to Revisit Your Preapproval?
If your preapproval letter has been sitting in a folder since the spring, it may be telling you an old story.
The mortgage world has shifted in several meaningful ways this year, and the qualifying rules that applied to you a few months ago can look quite different today. For many buyers, that difference lands in their favor - a higher purchase price, a lower monthly payment, or a green light where there was once a no.
Here are three changes worth a second look.
Skip the mortgage insurance entirely
Our Forget MI program was built for first-time buyers earning less than 80% of the area median income in the county where they're buying. Qualifying buyers put down less than 20% and still pay zero monthly mortgage insurance. That savings often runs a few hundred dollars a month, and it can either stay in your pocket or stretch your buying power toward a home you previously wrote off as out of reach. Income limits shift by county and household size, and many people assume they earn too much when they actually qualify. Reach out and we can see how this program works for you.
Portfolio loans for real-life situations
Plenty of well-qualified buyers can’t play by the standard rulebook. Self-employed for eighteen months rather than two years? Tax returns reflecting smart write-offs rather than actual cash flow? Strong assets alongside modest documented income? Traditional guidelines say no to all three.
Our portfolio products stay in-house, which means we write the guidelines and make the decision. Asset depletion, alternative income documentation, and plain common sense all come into play. These programs help me approve borrowers other lenders turn away, and that’s a real edge in a competitive market.
Condo guidelines deserve another review
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are part way through a phased rollout of revised condominium requirements. Project reviews, reserve standards, repairs and litigation rules have all changed. A condo that was ineligible last year may qualify now - and a building that sailed through before may stumble today.
When these guidelines block a condo purchase, our portfolio programs frequently open a path to closing. Either way, knowing where a specific building stands before you write an offer can save time, money, and stress.
Let's take another look together
A preapproval review takes about fifteen minutes and costs nothing. Whether you’re actively shopping, quietly watching, or helping a family member weigh their options, a current preapproval beats an expired assumption every time, and increases your chances of offer acceptance.
Every one of these programs comes down to the details of your own situation - your income, your work history, your timeline, and the property. Email me at evelyn.freitas@rate.com and we’ll figure out how this information applies to you.
Coming next month - Appraisal changes take effect in November that will change how homes get valued and how fast transactions close. I’ll walk you through it all so you’re ready.
Email me at evelyn.freitas@rate.com and we can discuss your situation and vision — income, savings, timeline, and where you picture yourself in three years.
Evelyn Freitas, NMLS #247578, Guaranteed Rate Inc, NMLS #2611
substack: why our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
THE REAL ESTATE TEAM YOU KEEP
Everyone Can Search. Our Clients Have Someone to Call
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com · (415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com · (510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com · (510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
Matt Szemela · Matt@thehomefactor.com · (646) 528-5783 · DRE#02241673
Becca Wilcox · Becca@thehomefactor.com · (510) 996-8747 · DRE#02241574
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591
