Monthly report · No.26
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2026
The Condo Market Nuances the Alarmist Headlines Are Hella Obscuring
By Declan Spring
I hope you’re enjoying Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of summer. Whether you’re staying local, heading out of town, or simply trying to slow down for a couple of days, I hope the weekend brings good weather, good company, and safe travels.
This month, we took a deeper look at one of the more difficult stories in the East Bay housing market: Condos, and Oakland condos in particular. If you’ve followed the recent headlines, you’ve probably seen some variation of:
“Prices collapsing.”
“Values down 11%.”
“Condo market crisis.”
But as is often the case in East Bay real estate, the truth is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Insurance shocks, SB 326 balcony inspections and repairs, rising HOA dues, and shifting lending standards have absolutely created pressure within parts of the condo market. Some complexes are struggling with deferred maintenance, underfunded reserves, special assessments, or insurance situations that are beginning to affect financing options.
At the same time, broad reporting often blends condos, townhomes, and single-family homes into one dramatic number. Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond are not one market, either separately or collectively. A downtown Oakland condo and a Rockridge house are not equivalent in terms of demand, and even within the condo market itself, some buildings are performing far better than others.
In the latest episode of The Mostly Real Estate Podcast, I sat down with Kerri Naslund-Monday to unpack what buyers, sellers, and agents are actually seeing on the ground right now. What started as a simple one-year condo market check-in quickly turned into a larger conversation about how fragmented this market has become, and why experienced local guidance matters more than ever. Kerri walks through the questions buyers are increasingly asking at open houses:
Is the building SB 326 compliant?
Are reserves adequately funded?
Is there a looming special assessment?
Will the insurance setup create lending problems?
We also discuss the surprisingly high rate of expired and cancelled listings, why “what didn’t sell” can matter more than the few standout comps that did, and which features are still helping units stand out in a shrinking buyer pool. Interestingly, some well-run complexes may actually represent compelling long-term opportunities for informed buyers willing to do careful due diligence. Mentioned in the episode: SF Chronicle article from May 10 on Oakland Home Values & The Property Ledger: YouTube Video regarding the Oakland Condo Market
If you’re buying, selling, investing, or simply trying to make sense of the condo headlines across Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond, and the broader Inner East Bay, I think you’ll find this conversation valuable. Listen here: The Mostly Real Estate Podcast Episode #75 with Kerri Naslund Monday
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay? Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
The Inner East Bay market has shown impressive resilience against a volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. Consistent with broader 2026 trends, low inventory has concentrated buyer demand into too few properties. April was another rewarding month for home sellers.
April 2026 had 1.66 months of supply inventory* for our subject area, compared to 2.3 months of supply in April 2025 — a “hotter” market, meaning conditions were even more favorable to sellers. For context, 5–6 months of inventory is generally considered a “balanced” market. So while the Inner East Bay is almost always competitive, April was yet another month in which conditions continued to heat up.
We saw a whopping 19.2% reduction in new listings year over year** (130 fewer listings), coupled with only 3.4% fewer sold homes (14 fewer sales). The median list price remained unchanged at $899K from April 2025 to April 2026, but the median sold price increased by 3.45%. The average sold price rose by 0.9%, while, interestingly, the average list price declined by 3%. The simplest takeaway is that the Inner East Bay’s infamous culture of underpricing is only becoming more entrenched. The median home sold for 17% over the median list price.
As always, there is a great deal of nuance to examine as we zoom in on specific cities and neighborhoods. Alameda and Hercules experienced wide variations in their absorption rates that can largely be explained by trends from previous months. El Sobrante had an unusually low absorption rate, continuing a longer trend of weakening conditions, while Richmond posted a stronger month that appears to reflect improving market conditions.
Some readers may have encountered articles labeling Oakland as a declining market compared to other major U.S. cities. These articles are clickbait and incredibly misleading. Nearly all of them cite Zillow as the underlying source of the data. I will write a separate article entirely devoted to criticizing Zillow and explaining why its algorithms are particularly ineffective in our market. For now, I’ll simply note that Zillow’s data is not based on statistics such as average sold price, median sold price, or number of sales, but rather on its own “Zestimates” of unsold homes.
As always, the data and trends are granular and vary widely by city, neighborhood, and individual property. If you have questions about your specific situation — whether you're looking to buy, sell, or simply understand what your home may be worth in this environment — feel free to reach out anytime. We’re always happy to talk through the numbers.
You can reach out directly to me at ehsan@thehomefactor.com
*The rate at which active inventory would be consumed by the last 30 days of buyer activity. **Year-over-Year - comparing April 2026 vs April 2025
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
If the first quarter of 2026 felt like a window finally opening, the spring breeze has reminded us how quickly conditions can change. In late February, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, landing at 5.98% on Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. Then came the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and with them, a rapid reset of expectations. In late May, the 30-year average sits at 6.51% after hitting 6.65%, and traders who anticipated multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 are now expecting at least one hike. No one knows how soon a resolution will be reached, so it remains to be seen where rates will peak as inflation resulting from the conflict pressures them higher.
That shift has changed the conversation in living rooms across the Bay Area. Buyers who were ready to write offers in February are pausing. Sellers are recalibrating. Everyone is watching the headlines, attempting to reconcile how radically reality has diverged from our expectations of just a few short months ago.
Here is what the local price data shows: the seven-county Bay Area median sale price sits at roughly $1.4 million. Closer to home, Alameda County’s median price is $925,000 while Contra Costa County’s median is $760,000. The inner East Bay continues to see well-priced, move-in-ready homes draw multiple offers, particularly in Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, and Walnut Creek. Inventory remains constrained across the East Bay, and that supply pressure — not the rate sheet — is the defining feature of our market.
So where does that leave you? Focused on what you can control. You can control your focus on your goal — a home of your own. You can control your credit profile, your documented income, your down payment strategy. You can control whether your pre-approval is current and complete, so you move with confidence when the right home appears. You can control the loan structure you select: a rate buydown, an ARM, or a conventional 30-year fixed each address a different issue. You can control your timeline — because in a market this tight, hesitation often costs more than a quarter-point on a rate sheet. And finally, you can control the parameters of your offer to make it stand out from the competition. Remember that you only lock in a rate once your offer is accepted, which means that in a rising rate environment, the best strategy is to be preapproved and make an aggressive offer so you can get into escrow and lock an actual rate. Before then, the rate is hypothetical.
Rates will keep moving with every geopolitical headline, but equity, once earned, compounds forever. Stay the course — every buyer who owns a home today once stood where you are now.
Reach out anytime with questions or to talk about your home buying plans at evelyn.freitas@rate.com. I’m here to help you figure out your financing options and make those goals a reality.
Create Harmony In Your Home
By Denitsa Shopova
Why Feng Shui Coupled With My Personalized, Custom Home Styling is Your Secret Real Estate Advantage
Whether you are preparing to list your home or you’ve just received the keys to a new one, the "vibe" of a space isn't just an abstract feeling. It’s the result of how energy, or Qi, flows through your environment. That is why I am proud to offer Feng Shui Consultations as well as simple Custom Home Styling Consultations as a core part of my real estate services.
The Benefits of an Aligned Home
Feng Shui is the ancient art of arranging your living space to create balance with the natural world. When your home is aligned, the benefits ripple into every area of your life.
Reduced Stress: Simple shifts in furniture placement can transform a chaotic room into a sanctuary of calm.
Enhanced Prosperity: By activating specific areas of your home (the "Wealth Corner"), you invite abundance and career growth.
Better Sleep & Health: Optimizing the bedroom layout can improve rest and physical vitality.
Faster Sales: For sellers, a home with good flow feels "right" to buyers the moment they walk in, often leading to quicker and higher offers.
Ready to bring more balance to your space? I’m currently offering a New Year Harmony Session for my clients. Reach out to me today at denitsa@thehomefactor.com to book a no obligation discovery call! Wishing you a New Year that’s in balance.
SUBSTACK: WHY our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
👉 Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591