March 15, 2026
March 15, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *allInner-East Bay open homes for this weekend,please click here.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
“Where Did All The Houses Go?” was the lead article in our February 27 Monthly Report, and although the number of Open Homes continues to rise week-over-week, the reality is that available inventory for detached homes is down approximately 27% this week. year over year. Click here to read the newsletter.
What’s fascinating to me this week is that despite having caught up to last year's inventory levels 1 week ago, Berkeley has again fallen behind year-over-year levels by 15%. The only city bucking trend in the East Bay this week is Albany which has seen a 30% week-over-week increase in active listings going from 8 to 11 available homes.Another interesting detail in the data this week is the increase in the number of homes that have taken a price hit. More on this further down.
Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Middle-East regional turmoil is rapidly affecting affordability. The chatter among agents in the East Bay this week is around how this will affect the Spring market which has so far been very strong due to low inventory. Please read more below in theLet’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Note about Berkeley: Proposedpoint of salechanges to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in theLet’s Talk About Mortgage Ratessection further down.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 55%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’ve heard also that buyer activity in Rockridge has started to pick up again after a sluggish 2025.
The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to slow. This is out-of-step with expectations for this time of year especially with the slower pace of new listings to the market (which is also out-of-step with seasonal expectations). The slowdown in inventory could be a direct consequence of last year's property value declines in Oakland and homeowners deciding to wait for the market to pick-up before they consider selling.
There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 337
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 472
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,244,053 (19 DOM)
OM)Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,145,455 (21 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. It’s a tale of 2 cities though: We’re routinely seeing property sell for up to $1,400 per sq ft, down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley, but the Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$800 making for different average values from the flats to the hills. The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce in the flats. The graph shows a rollercoaster in the past 4 weeks when a rainy week caused a delay in new listings followed by a big week for new inventory and a seeming slowdown in Pendings while buyers jockeyed for position, and with Pendings picking up this week, active inventory is down week-over-week!
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 62
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 73
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $$1,600,556 (27 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,875,455 (21 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 78 days (slowly decreasing over the past several weeks). That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. The gap between Active and Pending closed by quite a bit in the past week as buyers jumped on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like The Annex and Richmond North & East where one property received 18 offers!
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 81
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 110
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $887,736 (20 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $856,686 (24 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 75 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 71. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.
It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, March 15: Let’s break it down
Of the 245 single family residential homes that have an open house 8% had a price adjustment - that’s a jump of 6% over last week. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.
Of the 120 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 7.5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 47 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 44. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years - but rates have since inched up past 6% due to geopolitical and other concerns.
What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:
Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.
I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898