Monthly report · No.23
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2025
Local Market Alert | Bay Area Inventory vs. National Trends
By Declan Spring
‘While national headlines tout a housing recovery with Realtor.com and Redfin reporting that January 2026 ended with a 10% increase in national inventory year over year, the story on the ground in the Bay Area is a stark contradiction. Instead of a thaw, local MLS data reveals that inventory has plummeted compared to the same week last year. San Francisco is down 33%, Richmond is down 25%, Oakland is down 22%, and Berkeley is down 17%. This scarcity is occurring at a time when mortgage interest rates have just hit a three and a half year low.
We are in a strong seller's market and we do not see that changing at least for the first half of the year.
If you are planning on selling, there is no better time. Once a property hits the market these days, it is really hard to predict how high it might go. There is one caveat, however, with an emphasis on fire safety in the Berkeley Hills and the much higher costs of insurance compared to neighborhoods down from the hills. Homes in very high fire hazard zones are seeing increasing days on market and a real difference in price per square foot values as buyers weigh the prestige of a view against escalating ownership costs.
Stay Informed with The Home Factor
We are committed to bringing you the most authentic, real-time insights through three distinct channels. Please share this newsletter with anyone looking to navigate the Inner East Bay in 2026!
Monthly Recap: Deep dives into the most useful data in our local Inner East Bay micro-markets.
Weekly Substack: Your source for hyper-local market dynamics and curated lists of the week's best open homes.
The Mostly Real Real Estate Podcast: Hear industry pros talk shop in real time. We have some heavy-hitting episodes "in the can" and ready for release:
Wildfire Resilience: A conversation with Berkeley’s Assistant Fire Chief, Colin Arnold, regarding the rollout and enforcement of Berkeley’s controversial EMBER ordinance (specifically the strict Zone 0 requirements).
ADU Financing: A look at 2026 finance options for Accessory Dwelling Units with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage.
Looking Ahead
With a mid-term election curveball looming at the end of 2026, the political and economic landscape is bound to get interesting. Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious about your home's equity, we invite you to accompany us for the ride.
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
The 2026 market has started with a bang, but it will take a while for the data to reflect this. Anecdotally, we are seeing strong buyer demand pushing up against constrained supply in most of the markets that we operate in. The chart above tracks home sales that closed in January, meaning it is mostly indicative of transactions that began in December. The key statistic driving current market dynamics is that there were 100 fewer new listings in January 2026 versus 2025 (a 19.7% decrease!).
The January closings analyzed above show a 7% decrease in the Median Sale Price Year-over-Year (YoY). Sellers also listed their homes for less money; the Median and Average List Price dropped by 5.7% and 5.3%, respectively. Coupled with this reduction in sellers’ expectations, the number of listings sold increased by 6.3%. These trends are consistent with our analysis of the rest of 2025: the market has been finding its new equilibrium in the wake of the pandemic boom and subsequent quantitative tightening that started in mid-2022.
The drastic reduction in inventory seems to be upending this long-term trend. It will take a while for city-wide, monthly data to catch up to the dynamics of today's market. At the close of January, the only cities with more than two months' supply of inventory were Oakland, Richmond, El Sobrante, and San Pablo. All of those cities were under three months' supply of inventory, and within them, we see lots of variation. The data and trends are granular and different for each city and neighborhood. Whether buying or selling, reach out to Declan or myself for a consultation personalized to your situation.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Mortgage Opportunities Are Here for Homeowners and Future Buyers.
Many homeowners think refinancing only means lowering their interest rate. Today’s market is creating additional refinance opportunities that can save thousands of dollars, often through structural improvements rather than rate alone.
Recent mortgage reviews show meaningful gains can come from removing mortgage insurance, restructuring adjustable-rate loans that no longer fit long-term plans, putting idle equity to work, or shortening the loan term without a significant payment increase, saving thousands over the life of the loan.
Market cycles create powerful windows. Rates have eased from recent peaks, property values remain stable across much of our region, and financing options have expanded compared to the past two years. Conditions like this rarely last.
While refinancing is not right for everyone, periodic strategic reviews matter. Homeowners who purchased or refinanced several years ago often operate under outdated assumptions. A current analysis frequently reveals options that did not exist at the time of the original loan.
At the same time, a major opportunity is opening for future homeowners. California’s Dream For All program, an equity-sharing down payment assistance program for first-time and first-generation buyers, is open for applications between February 24 and March 16. The process is lottery based, so eligible households must apply during the window, with selections made randomly after it closes.
Qualified buyers can receive substantial down payment assistance in exchange for shared appreciation at resale. Preparation is critical. Fully approved and documented buyers are positioned to move quickly if selected, while incomplete files often miss access.
Real estate decisions age quickly in a changing market. For homeowners, this is an excellent time to evaluate whether your current mortgage aligns with today’s conditions and your financial goals.
For buyers interested in Dream For All, now is the time to complete your preapproval.
Interested in reviewing options or getting preapproved? Let’s connect for a brief strategy conversation at Evelyn.Freitas@rate.com
Create Harmony In Your Home
By Denitsa Shopova
Why Feng Shui Coupled With My Personalized, Custom Home Styling is Your Secret Real Estate Advantage
Whether you are preparing to list your home or you’ve just received the keys to a new one, the "vibe" of a space isn't just an abstract feeling. It’s the result of how energy, or Qi, flows through your environment. That is why I am proud to offer Feng Shui Consultations as well as simple Custom Home Styling Consultations as a core part of my real estate services.
The Benefits of an Aligned Home
Feng Shui is the ancient art of arranging your living space to create balance with the natural world. When your home is aligned, the benefits ripple into every area of your life.
Reduced Stress: Simple shifts in furniture placement can transform a chaotic room into a sanctuary of calm.
Enhanced Prosperity: By activating specific areas of your home (the "Wealth Corner"), you invite abundance and career growth.
Better Sleep & Health: Optimizing the bedroom layout can improve rest and physical vitality.
Faster Sales: For sellers, a home with good flow feels "right" to buyers the moment they walk in, often leading to quicker and higher offers.
Why "Gift" Yourself a Consultation This Year?
We often spend thousands on renovations and decor, but we rarely invest in the energy of the home or a simple decluttering of space and rebalance of objects already present. Gifting yourself a Feng Shui consultation is an act of self-care. It’s about ensuring that your most significant financial investment, your home, is also your most significant emotional support system.
"A house is made of walls and beams; a home is built with love and dreams. Feng Shui ensures those dreams have the room to grow."
Ready to bring more balance to your space? I’m currently offering a New Year Harmony Session for my clients. Reach out to me today at denitsa@thehomefactor.com to book a no obligation discovery call! Wishing you a New Year that’s in balance.
SUBSTACK: WHY our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
👉 Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
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We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591