July 26 East Bay Real Estate weekend Update
July 26, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes list are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
But first….. Introducing the Market Pulse! Rather than focusing on the ups and downs of a single week, the new Market Pulse charts for Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond track the rolling two-week average and median sold price for single-family homes. Updating the charts weekly while looking back over the prior two weeks helps smooth out short-term fluctuations and provides a more reliable view of price trends. The sample size for each period is shown along the bottom (n = number of sales) so you can see how many transactions contributed to each data point.
Increasingly, the number of homes actively available across the East Bay consists of fewer new listings and a greater number of homes that have been sitting. This is especially true in Berkeley and Pinole and most exquisitely true in Hercules.
Berkeley continues to lead the East Bay in buyer competition and market intensity. The market is split however: homes in the Flats often sell for $1,200+ per square foot, while many Hills properties in higher fire-risk areas trade closer to $800 per square foot. The best homes continue to sell quickly, while demand in the Hills is noticeably more selective. As a reminder, price per square foot generally declines as home size increases. Oakland is a highly segmented market, with higher-value neighborhoods and homes over $1M generally outperforming the sub-$1M market. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract buyers, with renewed strength in Rockridge and Temescal. Fire insurance concerns are also softening demand in higher-risk hillside areas. Richmond has also consistent pattern with the best homes selling quickly, while the remaining inventory takes longer to find buyers. Demand is especially strong in Richmond North & East and The Annex, where recent listings attracted an average of 20 offers, with prices now exceeding last year's highs.
If you are focused on a specific city or neighborhood, please reach out and so we can dig in and get granular.
Note about Berkeley: Zone Zero Defensible Space enforcement rolls-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Opportunities: Pro Tip
Older listings (3 weeks+) that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in.
Open Homes* • The numbers
*The specific cities covered in the Open Homes graph are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
Oakland accounts for 53% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 54% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen here.
The Big 3: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Oakland Market Activity • Single-family homes
Oakland Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Berkeley Market Activity • Single-family homes
Berkeley Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Richmond Market Activity • Single-family homes
Richmond Market Pulse
Rolling two-week average & median sold price • Single-family homes • n = number of sales
Price Adjusted Property with a Weekend Open House
Of 207 single family residential homes that have an open house 6% had a price adjustment. Click here for the list. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See more information below on cancellations.
Of 100 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list. Condo values continue to soften across the Inner East Bay, extending a decline that began in mid-2024. The list of price reductions is always worth reviewing.
Condos & Townhomes
Average days on market (DOM) for condos is 80 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 61. It's difficult to say when condos will finally find a floor, but my guess is it will coincide with mortgage rates falling below 6%. Cancellations are also playing a role, as many listings are withdrawn after about 90 days on market. More on cancellations appears below.
For buyers, however, it's an excellent time to shop for a condo or townhouse. Historically, condos are the last housing segment to recover after a correction, following single-family homes. With the Inner East Bay single-family market appearing to have found its footing amid tight inventory, the condo market may not be far behind. For buyers, today's condo market presents excellent opportunities, and a well-chosen condo or townhouse can still be an outstanding long-term investment.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 talking specifically about the Inner East Bay condo market. 🎧Click here to listen. I recorded a 1-year follow-up on the same topic in May 2026. 🎧Click here to listen.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
The number of cancellations week-to-week has stayed fairly consistent recently. Cancellations often reflect sellers withdrawing underperforming or overpriced listings to relist later or rent instead. They can also present opportunities for buyers, although seller expectations may remain unrealistic. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 43 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*.
Coming Soon listings remain limited, averaging 41 over the past four weeks. Hidden from public search sites, they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you
This Week's Mortgage Rate News
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Highest Rates in Over a Year.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, conflict with Iran, and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5% in the recent months but we are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5% for 2026, actually ending at 6.4% this week. The swings along the way have been significant. Continued conflict may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices climb.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898