July 19 East Bay Real Estate weekend Update
July 19, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *allInner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
This week, due to vacation, I am providing only graphs. Full commentary will resume on Sunday, July 26
In brief: The East Bay market continues to send mixed signals. Inventory remains limited in many neighborhoods, but buyers are increasingly selective, and listings are being canceled when price and presentation miss the mark creating a tension between buyers and sellers. I expect the market to remain somewhat uneven through the rest of the summer. The best homes should continue to sell well, while everything else will need to work harder for attention.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 37 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*.
Coming Soon listings are hidden from public search sites but they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you
This Week’s Mortgage Rate News
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Cooler Inflation Brings Relief For Mortgage Rates.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5% in the past month but we are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5% for 2026, actually ending at 6.3% this week. The swings along the way have been significant. Continued conflict may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898