APRIL 19, 2026
April 19, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
At last, a brush with normalcy, or close to it. Uncertainty still hangs over the market, but across Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond we’re finally seeing a familiar spring pattern emerge, with inventory inching up week over week as the season builds, just as the charts below reflect. That said, not every East Bay market is cooperating. Pinole and Hercules are moving in the opposite direction, with inventory slipping week over week. Open houses for single family homes are picking up, while the condo segment tells a quieter story, likely because many units that have sat for two months or more are no longer being actively promoted. Even with the recent gains, overall inventory remains tight at 32% below this time last year, and with “Coming Soon” activity fading, there may not be much additional supply waiting to hit the market.
All of this is playing out against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher, rattling financial markets, and making mortgage rate predictions even more of a moving target than usual. And yet, on the ground, the story hasn’t budged. Inventory remains exceptionally tight, demand is still strong, and that imbalance continues to put a firm floor under prices, even in the face of rate pressure.
Micro market note: El Sobrante is waking up. Listings are climbing while contracts are slowing, creating a rare pocket of opportunity for buyers. With solid value and relative affordability, this is one of the few places right now where you can move with a bit more leverage. If it’s been on your radar, this may be your moment. Reach out and let’s talk strategy.
Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
Older listings that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in. As always, see below for a closer look at market dynamics across our three key Inner East Bay cities, Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
I’ve included last year’s active listing counts alongside this year’s for Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond to show how inventory has changed year over year.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.
For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.
Oakland accounts for 56% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 56% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen there.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price for a specific type of single family home over the past two weeks, compared to this time last year. Days on Market (DOM) is included because longer selling times tend to align with softer year over year values.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
The 2 month chart has been approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to come to market than in March while homes continue to go contract at a steady pace.. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing renewed momentum in Rockridge and Temescal, with demand beginning to rebound after a quieter stretch in 2025.
Inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are, for now, being tempered by a simple but powerful dynamic of constrained supply meeting strong demand.
There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Similar to the Berkeley Hills, fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 354
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 495
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,144,162 (31 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,164,103 (27 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Berkeley’s market has been intensely competitive so far this year, with multiple offers the norm for well priced, well located, and well presented homes. It is increasingly a tale of two markets: In the Flats, including central, north, and northwest Berkeley, prices are commonly landing between $1,200 and $1,400+ or more per square foot*, while in the Hills, particularly within Very High Fire Hazard Zones, values drop closer to around +/-$750 per square foot, creating a clear divide. Demand in the Flats remains relentless, and after a March dip in inventory when it should have been rising, April is bringing a return to something more seasonal, with listings building and buyers taking a bit more time to commit. The pattern is clear: the best homes still fly off the shelf, while everything else lingers, particularly in the Hills, where the pause prior to homes going under contract is more pronounced. *It’s also worth noting that price per square foot typically declines as home size increases, with the highest value generally concentrated in the first 1000 square feet.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 63
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 87
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,693,250 (10 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $2,044,500 (16 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 48% Y-o-Y. Similar to Berkeley, the graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory declining in March when it should have been rising. April is bringing a return to something more seasonal, with listings building and buyers taking a bit more time to commit. Even with the increase, inventory is still below March levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.
That’s reflected in the data too: Average Days on Market (DOM) for Richmond has remained above 80 for the past month.
Note: Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like Richmond North & East, where one property received 18 offers, and The Annex, where a listing received 24 offers, and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 73
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 139
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $869,419 (25 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $701,857 (62 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 75 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 60. That’s an improvement on last week though and considerably better than a couple of months ago. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.
It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Due to inventory constraints this year it seems that the Inner East Bay single family home market has generally hit its floor and logically that should mean the floor for condos is imminent.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, April 19: Let’s break it down
Of the 264 single family residential homes that have an open house 4% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.
Of the 114 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 8% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming or mispriced listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 44 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has moved down from the high water mark 2 weeks ago of 50. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 43. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5% in the past month but we are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5% for 2026, actually ending at 6.3% this week. The swings along the way have been significant. Continued conflict may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:
Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.
I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Mortgage Rates Ended the Week at Their Lowest Levels in a Month - But Not as Low as Expected. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”. I have recorded a new podcast episode with Faramarz and will release it this week.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898