APRIL 12, 2026
April 12, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
Uncertain times tend to produce uncertain markets, and that is very much the backdrop right now, although there are still some patterns you can rely on. With agents holding back inventory ahead of last week’s Easter holiday, we expected a post holiday bump and we got one, but it was not evenly distributed across the East Bay. Berkeley led the way in new listings, though not in the areas where demand has been strongest, as much of the new inventory came from the Hills, a segment that has not seen the same buyer appetite this year, so while the headline number improved the impact feels more muted. Even with the increase, inventory remains below the levels we saw in the weeks leading up to Easter, and “Coming Soon” activity has tapered off, suggesting there may not be much additional supply waiting to hit the market. One final variable to watch is the stormy weather forecast this weekend, which may have caused some agents to delay listing debuts, and if that is the case it should show up in next week’s data.
All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing up oil prices, unsettling financial markets, and nudging mortgage rates higher. Even so, the story on the ground hasn’t changed much. Exceptionally low inventory is being met with strong demand, and that continues to put a firm floor under prices despite rate pressure.
Micro market note: El Sobrante is seeing a significant increase in listings and a slow down in contracts. El Sobrante has a lot to offer, especially some great and affordable opportunities. Reach out to discuss!!
Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.
For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 56%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
The 2 month chart has been approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are starting to slip while homes continue to go contract at a steady pace.. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing renewed momentum in Rockridge and Temescal, with demand beginning to rebound after a quieter stretch in 2025.
Inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are, for now, being tempered by a simple but powerful dynamic of constrained supply meeting strong demand.
There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Similar to the Berkeley Hills, fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 336
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 507
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,115,478 (28 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,087,061 (24 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Berkeley’s market has been intensely competitive so far this year, with multiple offers the norm for well priced, well located, and well presented homes. It is increasingly a tale of two markets: In the Flats, including central, north, and northwest Berkeley, prices are commonly landing between $1,200 and $1,400+ or more per square foot*, while in the Hills, particularly within Very High Fire Hazard Zones, values drop closer to around +/-$750 per square foot, creating a clear divide. Demand in the Flats remains especially strong, and inventory had been declining at a time of year when it would typically rise, until this week when new listings jumped. However, much of that new supply comes from the Hills, where buyer demand has been softer, so the overall impact is more muted. Even with the increase, inventory is still below pre Easter levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.
*It’s also worth noting that price per square foot typically declines as home size increases, with the highest value generally concentrated in the first 1000 square feet.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 59
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 88
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,775,200 (10 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,355,200 (12 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 46% Y-oY. Similar to Berkeley, the graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory declining at a time of year when it should be rising, until this week when new listings jumped. Even with the increase, inventory is still below pre Easter levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.
That’s reflected in the data too: Average Days on Market (DOM) for Richmond has increased from 80 to 87 in the past two weeks.
Note: Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like Richmond North & East, where one property received 18 offers, and The Annex, where a listing received 24 offers, and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 67
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 125
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $786,938 (15 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $707,348 (72 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 76 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 67. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.
It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Due to inventory constraints this year it seems that the Inner East Bay single family home market has generally hit its floor and logically that should mean the floor for condos is imminent.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, April 12: Let’s break it down
Of the 214 single family residential homes that have an open house 6% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.
Of the 126 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 43 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has moved down from last week past week's high water mark of 50. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 40. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5%, to $6.64% approx. for a 30-year conventional.We are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5%, actually ending 6.64% this week and the swings along the way have been significant. The war may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:
Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.
I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898