Monthly report · No.20
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2025
It’s Thanksgiving, and as we continue to bring only the most essential news from our local real estate market, we also want to take a moment to wish you and yours a very joyful, warm, and peaceful Thanksgiving. We are grateful to be your trusted resource for everything real estate related in the East Bay and beyond! - THANK YOU!!
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
October’s numbers lined up with what we typically see this time of year. Even as the broader market continues its gradual shift toward greater Buyer leverage, the familiar burst of post-summer activity showed up again, and September’s uptick in demand carried into October’s data. One of the clearest markers: months of inventory dropped sharply from 2.3 to 1.7, mirroring the same decline we saw last year between early October and early November.
As we move deeper into the holiday season, new listings are expected to fall off significantly. November and December almost always bring a slowdown, as most Sellers would rather avoid listing between Thanksgiving and New Year’s. This seasonal pattern consistently creates advantages for Buyers, provided they can find the right home, and 2025 is shaping up to offer an even stronger window of opportunity. Prices are still higher than last year (median up 1% year over year, average sale price up 7%), but there are more homes available overall. October 2025 brought a modest 4.6% increase in new listings compared to last year, alongside a slight 3.8% decline in the number of homes sold.
Individually, these monthly shifts are subtle, but taken together over 2024 and 2025, they show a steady buildup of unabsorbed inventory. Sellers are under mounting pressure to price correctly and present homes in strong condition. Buyers, on the other hand, are seeing their opportunities to negotiate and potentially land a better deal continue to expand in many neighborhoods.
If you find these trends as riveting as we do, make sure to subscribe to Declan’s Substack, where you can see our Weekly Market Update!
And of course, for data specific to your city or neighborhood, or any insights and strategies specific to your situation, please reach out to either myself or Declan directly. We both regularly log data directly from the MLS, and we don’t know anyone else who takes the time to study the market so thoroughly.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Mortgage News Roundup
Happy November! There is so much happening in the mortgage world right now – let’s have a quick “mortgage round up” to catch up on recent developments as we head into the holiday season.
Federal Reserve Meeting and Rate Movement
Mortgage rates edged down to the lowest point of 2025 before the Fed’s policy meeting at the end of October as markets anticipated a possible rate cut, and as usually happens, rates have drifted upward slightly since the meeting and the Fed’s .25% cut to their rate. While the Fed doesn’t directly set home loan rates, its actions influence bond yields and thereby mortgage pricing. This dip offers an opportunity for buyers and homeowners in the Bay Area. For those who purchased homes in 2023 or 2024, now may be a time to look at savings through a refinance.
New Conventional Loan Limits for 2026 – Bay Area Impacts
Every year the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) adjusts the conforming loan limits—the maximum loan size for mortgages eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For 2025 in California the baseline is $806,500 and up to $1,209,750 in high-cost counties. For 2026, early indications suggest the baseline will be around $819,000 and high-cost area caps near $1.229 million. What does this mean for Bay Area homebuyers? If you’re buying or refinancing near or above current limits, rising conforming limits mean access to more loan programs, possibly at lower rates or with lower down payments than “jumbo” loans.
50-Year Mortgage Announcement
There’s been a lot of buzz in the last few days around a proposed 50-year mortgage term being floated by the White House and the FHFA. Here’s what you need to know. First, this program has not been implemented, and there are no details or loan programs available as of yet. The idea here is to spread repayment over 50 years to lower the monthly payment for borrowers, potentially making homeownership more accessible. The downside tradeoffs are much slower equity growth, an insane amount of interest paid over the life of the loan, and unresolved questions around risk. 40-year mortgages are currently available and are highly unpopular for the very same reasons, so it’s not clear that an even longer loan term will open the doors to more homeowners, when there’s a strong argument to be made that inventory is the real issue at hand.
If you’ve got questions or would like to discuss any of these topics and how they might apply to your situation, please feel free to reach out at evelyn.freitas@rate.com – I’m always here to help.
C.A.R. FORCASTS BRIGHTER DAYS AHEAD FOR CALIFORNIA HOUSING IN 2026
By Declan Spring
As we move closer to Thanksgiving week, it feels fitting to take a moment to look ahead with gratitude and a bit of renewed optimism. After a few years of headwinds in the housing market, the California Association of REALTORS is forecasting a more balanced 2026. Statewide home sales are expected to rise about 2%, and the median home price is projected to grow by roughly 3.6%, reaching around $905,000. It’s not a surge, but it’s a healthy sign of stability returning to the market.
With mortgage rates expected to ease toward 6%, affordability is projected to improve slightly, from 16% to 18%. That means nearly one in five California households could once again qualify for a median-priced home, which is a small but noteweorthy step toward a more accessible market.
So as we gather with friends and family this Thanksgiving, there’s good reason to feel thankful for signs of stability, opportunity, and a California housing market that’s beginning to find its footing again.
SUBSTACK: WHY our monthly newsletter isn’t enough
By Declan Spring
Think you’re “in the know” from our monthly recap? Think again. Real estate markets move fast, and a once-a-month snapshot can’t keep up.
That’s where our Weekly Substack comes in — it’s your early-warning system, unpacking fresh inventory data, interest-rate shifts, neighborhood trends, and hidden opportunities well before the headlines catch up.
Every issue delivers:
Local open-house & listing insights
Real-time rate analysis
Tactical tips for buyers, sellers, and refinancers
Market signals you won’t see anywhere else
Make your decisions with confidence — not hindsight.
Click here to subscribe to our weekly Substack now and stay one step ahead.
THE HOME FACTOR ON YOUTUBE!
Our YouTube channel offers short, real-world videos showing how we transform and market the older homes we represent. Subscribe—and feel free to share it with anyone considering a sale who wants to see how we guide older homes into newer hands.
Click here to subscribe to our YouTube Channel for some behind the scenes magic..
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591