May 24-25, 2025
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday May 24, 2025, and Sunday May 25, 2025.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
The graph below for the number of Open Homes each Sunday clearly shows the disruption caused by holidays. It’s important to understand that there is not always a correlation between the number of open homes and the inventory of actively available homes. Despite a dip in the number of open homes this weekend, inventory remains at similar levels as last week.
We’re well into our busy spring season and active inventory is up. The weeks following Easter all the way to Memorial Day are always lively and spring demand usually peaks this period of the year before waning slightly as we cross into the summer. Active inventory this weekend is down slightly in 2 of our big 3 Inner East Bay cities, Oakland and Berkeley, and stayed flat in Richmond. Interesting observation: Active inventory in Albany this weekend is at an all-time high for many years at 14 available single family homes.They might all go into contract without pause but I thought it worth mentioning. Last year at this time we were crying out for inventory. This year we might be heading into a situation where we have more than we need as we cross into summer, especially when coupled with a problematic sense of the economic outlook. Of course, this can change in a heartbeat depending on which levers our President chooses to pull. Case in point: Last week saw some relief on Wall St. with a 90 day pause on 145% tariffs with China to a reduced tariff amount of 30%. This relief was short-lived though because in an unprecedented move, Moody’s announced a US credit rating downgrade resulting in bonds losing ground. There’s more on Mortgage Rates toward the end of this post, under the heading Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates. And how about Trump’s social media post on Friday, out of the blue, about 30% tariffs on Europe?
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities. Supply in Oakland and especially Berkeley is down and Pending Sales are staying afloat. The rate at which homes are going under contract (aka absorption) has generally been keeping pace with supply in the Inner East Bay especially for well presented and well priced homes.
NEW FEATURE! Average Sales Price Year over Year: We’ve added a new feature above the chart for each of our 3 biggest Inner East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond. The data is for the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. Per this data, Oakland and Richmond have lost most ground in terms of value, while Berkeley property value has held tight. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate to softer property value YoY.
Our Inner East Bay market remains a hot market relative to many parts of the country. Per normal seasonality, we anticipate that inventory levels will remain elevated through the summer months and our focus will be on whether or not demand continues to keep pace with available listings. Demand tends to start falling each year from mid-June but picks up again in mid-August, moving with the local schools summer schedule.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, same as last week, making the average over the past 2 months 59%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses.The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year. The number of available homes has moved down a bit this week. Property is going under contract at a healthy pace and has ticked up a little in the past week. Are we starting to see some tariff & economy related hesitation in demand? I don’t think so. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property remains normal. It is interesting to note however that between higher supply, elevated rates, and economic uncertainty, property value in Oakland is down YoY.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 512
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2024 = 483
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,089,493 (35 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,158,069 (18 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of available homes is down by quite a bit this week over last, and Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Demand in Berkeley is strong, stronger than in any other market in the Inner East Bay at this time. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re seeing truly record setting prices for property going under contract in Berkeley in the past few weeks: As much $1,400 per sq ft is not unheard of. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and property values, unlike Oakland to the south and Richmond to the north, are similar to this time last year despite higher supply, elevated rates, and economic uncertainty, property value in Berkeley is higher YoY.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 79
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2024 = 65
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,745,000 (16 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,622,382 (16 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The year started out in line with expectations and property was selling in Richmond at an equivalent pace to Oakland and Berkeley. The graph since mid-April shows a market that began performing differently from Oakland and Berkeley, and not in a good way but in recent weeks things seem to have stabilized into a better pattern. Activity inventory has leveled off in the past couple of weeks and so too have Pending Sales. Demand in Richmond is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property remains normal, however, opportunities are present in the Richmond market. Reach out for more information! It is interesting to note that between higher supply, elevated rates, and economic uncertainty, property value in Richmond is down YoY.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 158
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2024 = 76
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $601,667 (25 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $823,361 (14 DOM)
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 69.5 days, about the same as last week. I had anticipated a couple of months back that DOM for condos and townhomes might increase substantially by April or May. DOM 10 weeks ago was 56. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. We’ve also seen a substantial uptick in the past month for price adjusted condos, and in the past month for condo cancellations. More information is available below. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market.
Open Homes for Sunday, May 25, Let’s break it down:
Of the 303 single family residential homes that have an open house, 7% had a price adjustment, in multiple cities and at multiple price points. This is about the same as last week with the caveat that we’ve seen a wave of cancellations in the past month. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancelations.
Of the condos/townhouses that have an open house, 12% had a price adjustment in the past week in various cities. That more than doubles last week's number. Click here for the list. In various parts of the Inner East Bay condos are continuing to lose value, consistent with a downward trend that started last year. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There continues to be significant opportunity in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
A total of 55 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points and cities, but with the bulk of cancellations being in Oakland. The rate of cancellations had increased quite over the prior 4 week period, peaking 3 weeks ago, as inventory was increasing. The rate of cancellations remains elevated for single family detached homes.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 78 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon. The number has been increasing incrementally week-over-week for the past 4 weeks. This trend is becoming indicative of an upcoming uptick in listings. It’s reasonable to assume we might not have reached peak Spring inventory. These listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years (when are they not?!): Since September 2024 the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 1% but mortgage rates initially ticked up causing confusion among consumers. Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines (or increases), mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern.
Here’s a recap of recent real estate mortgage market dynamics: Mortgage interest rates are not expected to fall this year unless the economic outlook becomes dire and a recession is in plain sight. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they don’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or next — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. In recent months we’ve seen the lowest mortgage rates since last October, and then a total about face to the highest rates in recent months, and then another lowering. This is the very definition of a roller coaster. For the most part, the financial markets had been responding to tariff news by selling stocks and buying bonds, but recently the bond market has become compromised. This is unprecedented, and so too is the move by Moody’s to downgrade the US Credit Rating. For a deeper dive into the mortgage roller coaster and current risks please click here for a recent podcast with mortgage expert Dominic Villa of Castle Hill Mortgage. I also found this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai, VP at Cross Country Mortgage, LLC extremely useful.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.