january 18, 2026
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for Sunday january 18, 2026.
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for Sunday January 18, 2026.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
The highlight in data for January continues to be how much lower inventory levels are this year vs last year. Although levels are very slowly starting to rise, the combined number of active single-family homes in all of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond at 346 units vs 434 same time last year.
The number of Open Homes remains low as the market remains in hibernation. We don't anticipate any meaningful uptick in inventory until around Super Bowl Sunday (which is commonly thought of in the industry as kick-off to the real estate year).
Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
El Sobrante is moving more slowly than other Inner East Bay market and if I was searching for a home right now I would be visiting every listing there. El Sobrante definitely has some great opportunities for a deal. Note: Curiously, while every other inner East Bay city has seen some small gain in inventory in the past week, El Sobrante has lost inventory.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last. This week's supply of active inventory is up over last week in all of our Inner East Bay cities with El Sobrante being the exception.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 53%, making the average over the past 2 months 54%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year although there are fewer available listings in Oakland this year vs same time last year. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year.
The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year.
There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk. It could be that the dip in recent value in Oakland correlates to the shrinking inventory - home owners might be reluctant to consider a move with the news that values have come down in many neighborhoods over the past 2 years, and perhaps are postponing a potential sale to a more favorable time.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 251
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 307
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $796,682 (52 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,073,149 (44 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re routinely seeing property sell for as much as $1,200 per sq ft and up to $1,400, especially down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year. The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 26
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 42
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $2,000,000 (32 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,310,000 (4 DOM) 2 units only
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. For most of 2025 there was far more available inventory in Richmond vs the previous year but we’ve seen that trend end almost completely. Inventory levels are almost identical to 12 months ago, although property value has slipped especially in the second half of the year. Average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 95 days. That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. Although we’re only a few weeks into the new year, new inventory is remaining very low relative to the increases we’re seeing in Oakland and Berkeley.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 69
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 85
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $697,500 (32 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $584,222 (48 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 75 days, and if we separate out townhouses and look only at condos, the average DOM is 96. Days on Market for condos and townhouses is on the high side. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.
It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a recent Substack post on why I believe the period between now and March 2026 represents an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-February 2026 🎧Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, January 18 Let’s break it down:
Of the 115 single family residential homes that have an open house 0% had a price adjustment. That’s generally unusual except at the beginning of the year, a stretch of time when there are so few listings available. As competition increases we’ll expect to see price changes within a few weeks for properties that begin to sit for too long (i.e., past 21 days). Canceled listings are an opportunity for buyers too, though. See below for more information on cancellations.
Of the 85 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 and was especially painful in 2025. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Since the week ending on December 19, we’ve seen a consistent drop off in the number of weekly cancellations. This is typical of this period of time each year.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 41 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has stayed flat over the past 2 weeks. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 35. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years.
What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:
Most recently (Sept. 18, 2025) I sat down to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.
On July 3, 2025, I sat down to podcast with mortgage advisor Faramarz Moeen-Ziai, to get his take on the situation around the so-called Big Beautiful Bill and the data informing him over the summer with respect to investor sentiment and mortgage rates. 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.
I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the final weeks of 2025: Despite edging slightly higher, mortgage rates remain near multi-year lows.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.