NOVEMber 2, 2025
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for Sunday November 2, 2025.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
The numbers in the data this week are very similar to last week: predictable in places and somewhat unexpected in others. I noted in my post on October 12 “the post Labor Day increase in inventory reached its peak in the past 2 weeks and is beginning to wane”. I stand corrected in the case of Berkeley. The City of Berkeley has the same high level of active inventory as it did 3 weeks ago! Let’s recap: Inventory in Berkeley increased easily by more than 50% after Labor Day. Oakland was in second place, and Albany and El Cerrito tied for third place. Richmond ran in 4th place. The increase in other cities was negligible. The big story in early October was the huge increase in cancellations, readily apparent in the last chart below. Seller expectations (in Oakland especially) are simply not being met and listings got pulled from the market as a result, somewhat en masse. The bottom line this week is that I’m seeing a slowdown in listings going under contract in Berkeley, while in Oakland and Richmond listings are going under contract at a better, healthier pace. We hope to see sitting inventory go under contract as we head into November and fewer new listings come to the market.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last. This week's supply of active inventory is down over last week in all of our Inner East Bay cities.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Our Inner East Bay market remains a hot market relative to many parts of the country and supply/demand dynamics have so far remained constant during the summer. Our focus post-Labor Day will be on whether or not demand keeps pace with available listings.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, making the average over the past 2 months 59%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year although, to be sure, there are fewer available listings in Oakland this year vs same time last year. The post Labor Day pop in inventory was lower than anticipated and was tempered also by cancellations.. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong and, very specifically, well priced, well located, and well presented properties continue to move reasonably quickly. The speed at which property is going under contract has remained steady in the past week as is evident in the chart. There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk. It could be that the dip in recent value in Oakland correlates to the shrinking inventory - home owners might be reluctant to consider a move with the news that values are coming down in many neighborhoods over last year, and perhaps are postponing a potential sale to the next calendar year.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 467
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2024 = 540
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:)
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,093,742 (31 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,137,912 (27 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re routinely seeing property sell for as much as $1,200 per sq ft and up to $1,400, especially down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year. Active inventory jumped easily by more than 50% in Berkeley after Labor Day and has remained elevated. The speed at which property is going under contract has slowed down in the past week though as is evident in the chart and the gap between Active and Pending has begun to increase. Days on Market slowed in the past few weeks as buyers paused to consider their options which created some stress for sellers anticipating a 14 day marketing period, and it probably tempered price expectations for some sellers as well. November is shaping up to be a good month to consider purchasing a home in Berkeley.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 82
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2024 = 64
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,577,000 (18 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,456,267 (31 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. There are more available listings in Richmond this year vs same time last year, which has been the trend all year. The gap vs same time last year has closed quite a bit though vs several months ago. Property is going under contract at the same pace as this time last year, although property value has slipped especially in the second half of the year. This year's post Labor Day market saw only a modest uptick in available listings. The speed at which property is going under contract has remained steady in the past week as is evident in the chart.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 111
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2024 = 104
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $627,909 (27 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $776,125 (34 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 72 days, and if we separate out townhouses and look only at condos, the average DOM is 79. Days on Market for condos and townhouses is on the high side. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.
It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market. Click here for a recent Substack post on why I believe the period between now and March 2026 represents an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo.
I dropped a podcast episode on May 30 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market; what’s the cause of the current problems and what are the silver linings. The content remains relevant. 🎧Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, November 2, Let’s break it down:
Of the 269 single family residential homes that have an open house 7% had a price adjustment, up 3 points over the past 2 weeks. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.
Of the 97 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 8% had price adjustment in the past week. The percentage of price adjusted property in this category has been on the high side recently. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started last year and has been brutally painful over the summer. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
A total of 35 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points and cities.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps in the new year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 37 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, lower than last week. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 40. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Mortgage interest rates were expected to remain high this year unless the economic outlook became dire. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they didn’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or (next) — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Remarkably though, they have! But is that good for the economy as a whole? For a deeper dive into the 2025 mortgage roller coaster and risks 🎧 please click here for an April 2025 podcast with mortgage expert Dominic Villa of Castle Hill Mortgage.
Leading up to the September 17 Federal Reserve Board of Governors meeting, there was a lot of talk about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates, and they did! I want to remind you that it’s extremely unwise to assume a cut to the short-term Fed funds rate will also bring a drop in mortgage rates.
This year feels like a repeat of last year. In the run up to September 2024 there was great anticipation that the Fed would cut rates for the first time in years. Let’s please consider carefully what happened: Mortgage rates are driven by investor sentiment. In the run up to September 2024 speculation around a Fed rate cut caused mortgage rates to drop in the couple of months prior to September. Why? Again, investor sentiment. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the anticipated rate cut ahead of the actual rate cut. When the Federal Reserve actually cut the rate in September mortgage rates initially ticked up causing massive confusion among consumers. The bond market has been behaving outside of normal this year due to government policy, and this Summer we had new legislation that likely adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen but here’s a recent article discussing a tepid response to recent U.S. Treasury auctions.
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:
Most recently (Sept. 18) I sat down to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.
On July 3 I sat down to podcast with mortgage advisor Faramarz Moeen-Ziai, to get his take on the situation around the so-called Big Beautiful Bill and the data informing him over the summer with respect to investor sentiment and mortgage rates. 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.
I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Here’s this week's bottom line: Mortgage rates moved higher after this week's Fed rate cut
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.