august 9-10, 2025
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday August 9, 2025, and Sunday August 10, 2025.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
Summer season is upon us and the summer slump in demand that typically arrives in mid-June and lasts into late July-early August, is here again, as predictable each year as the Bay Area fog that accompanies it.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last. This week's supply of active inventory is down over last week in all of our Inner East Bay cities.
For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly. Of the Inner east bay cities we track, El Sobrante appears to have the greatest opportunity for a deal, followed by Hercules.
Our Inner East Bay market remains a hot market relative to many parts of the country. Our focus during the summer is on whether or not demand continues to keep pace with available listings.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, making the average over the past 2 months 57%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year. The number of available homes moved up in June (a bump in active listings exactly in the middle of June seems to be a feature every year) and similar to last year the first week in July shows a dip. The number of homes for sale mid-summer has trended down but we’ll see that number rise dramatically around the Labor Day weekend and after. Property is going under contract at a healthy pace. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property continues to be a feature of the Oakland market. It’s worth noting that despite economic uncertainty, property value in Oakland has been generally holding steady year over year. Days on Market (DOM) has increased during the summer months but that was predicted to happen because with a decrease in inventory Buyers getting beaten out on their first choice will often circle back to their 2nd or 3rd choice. With the downward trend in inventory though, Buyers have been scooping up the available inventory as evidenced by the uptick in Sold property correlating with the uptick in inventory right after July 4.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 472
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2024 = 515
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,040,860 (40 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,005,282 (36 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Demand in Berkeley is strong, stronger than in any other market in the Inner East Bay at this time. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’ve seen truly record setting prices for property going under contract in Berkeley in the current market: As much $1,400 per sq ft is not unheard of. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year. The number of homes for sale mid-summer has trended down but we’ll see that number rise dramatically around the Labor Day weekend and after. With the downward trend in inventory though, Buyers have been scooping up the available inventory as evidenced by the uptick in Sold property correlating with the uptick in inventory right after July 4.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 57
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2024 = 54
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,471,778 (16 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,573,750 (25 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. It is interesting to note that despite much higher supply, volatile rates, and economic uncertainty, average property value has generally been higher in Richmond in the past few months vs last year. However, opportunities are present in the Richmond market especially right now - and I mean right now! Reach out for more information!
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 147
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2024 = 106
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $866,389 (34 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $702,500 (25 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 67.5 days, and if we separate out townhouses and look only at condos, the average DOM is 74. Days on Market for condos and townhouses is on the high side. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market.
I dropped a podcast episode on May 30 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market; what’s the cause of the current problems and what are the silver linings. The content remains relevant. Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, August 10, Let’s break it down:
Of the 263 single family residential homes that have an open house 6% had a price adjustment, in multiple cities and at multiple price points. That’s lower than last week. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancelations. We saw an uptick in cancellations of single family home listings in the past week.
Of the 116 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 10% had price adjustment in the past week, mostly in Oakland but with 1 sweet opportunity in Richmond. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started last year and has been brutally painful over the summer. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
A total of 71 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points and cities and single family homes are heavily represented. The cancellation has been elevated for the past 2 weeks running.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 55 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, down 5 units over last week. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 55. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years (when are they not?!). Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain high this year unless the economic outlook becomes dire and a recession is in plain sight. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they don’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or next — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. For a deeper dive into the 2025 mortgage roller coaster and current risks please click here for a recent podcast with mortgage expert Dominic Villa of Castle Hill Mortgage.
There’s an awful lot of talk about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates in September. I want to remind you that it’s extremely unwise to assume a cut to the short-term Fed funds rate will also bring a drop in mortgage rates.
Let’s remind ourselves what happened in September last year. In the run up to September 2024 there was great anticipation that the Fed would cut rates for the first time in years. Let’s please consider carefully what happened: Mortgage rates are driven by investor sentiment. In the run up to September 2024 speculation around a Fed rate cut caused mortgage rates to drop in the couple of months prior to September. Why? Again, investor sentiment. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the anticipated rate cut ahead of the actual rate cut. When the Federal Reserve actually cut the rate in September mortgage rates initially ticked up causing massive confusion among consumers. The bond market has been behaving outside of normal this year due to government policy, and this Summer we have new legislation that likely adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen but here’s a recent article discussing a tepid response to recent U.S. Treasury auctions.
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. I sat down on July 3rd to podcast with mortgage advisor Faramarz Moeen-Ziai, VP at Cross Country Mortgage, to get his take on the situation and the data he’s looking at over the summer that will inform him with respect to investor sentiment and mortgage rates. Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”. I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai, extremely useful. Here’s this week's bottom line: Rates are holding at their lowest since last October, but for how long?..
In a recent podcast, a conversation with Aman Daro, Director of Operations at The Grubb Co., we take a deep dive into what the data reveals about the first half of the year in the Inner East Bay real estate market. Please click here to enjoy this interesting conversation.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898