July 26-27, 2025
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday July 26, 2025, and Sunday July 27, 2025.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
Summer season is upon us and the summer slump in demand that typically arrives in mid-June and lasts into late July-early August, is here again, as predictable each year as the Bay Area fog that accompanies it.
This week’s podcast, a conversation with Aman Daro, Director of Operations at The Grubb Co., is a deep dive into what the data reveals about the first half of the year in the Inner East Bay real estate market.
The numbers tell a fascinating story of market bifurcation. While homes priced below $500,000 struggle to maintain value (selling 7% below asking on average), properties in the $1-2 million range are thriving at 22% over asking price. Even more striking, the luxury market above $2 million is performing exceptionally well, defying conventional expectations during economic uncertainty. This pattern suggests wealthy buyers may be viewing real estate as an inflation hedge, while entry-level segments face greater challenges.
Geographic variations paint an equally compelling picture. El Cerrito has emerged as the region's hottest market with homes selling 26% over asking price and the lowest months' supply of inventory. Berkeley continues its remarkable stability, now boasting the highest 20-year appreciation rate in the Inner East Bay. Meanwhile, Oakland and Richmond show strong performance in desirable neighborhoods despite higher cancellation rates. The condo market tells a different story, with median prices down 12% year-over-year and significantly longer days on market.
Here’s some additional information about Average % Over List Price for sales in our various cities since it’s a fascinating world unto itself and is the most frequently the most frustrating aspect of the market for consumers: Albany 34%; El Cerrito 26%; Berkeley 22%; Kensington 22%; Oakland 8%; Richmond 1%; El Sobrante, Pinole, San Pablo 0%.
Please click here to enjoy this interesting conversation.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last. This week's supply of active inventory is down over last week in all of our Inner East Bay cities. Pending Sales are staying afloat with a caveat below in the section specific to Berkeley. The rate at which homes are going under contract (aka absorption) has generally been keeping pace with supply in the Inner East Bay especially for well presented and well priced homes.
Our Inner East Bay market remains a hot market relative to many parts of the country. Our focus during the summer will be on whether or not demand continues to keep pace with available listings.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, making the average over the past 2 months 57%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses.The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year. The number of available homes moved up in June (a bump in active listings exactly in the middle of June seems to be a feature every year) and similar to last year the first week in July shows a dip. Property is going under contract at a healthy pace. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property continues to be a feature of the Oakland market. It’s worth noting that between higher supply in the first half of the year, volatile rates, and economic uncertainty, property value in Oakland has been generally holding steady (flat).
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 503
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2024 = 525
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,079,481 (22 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,066,224 (29 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Demand in Berkeley is strong, stronger than in any other market in the Inner East Bay at this time. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re seeing truly record setting prices for property going under contract in Berkeley in the current market: As much $1,400 per sq ft is not unheard of. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year. I am watching the data carefully though and notice pending sales have declined over the past month. Will Days on Market increase and property value slip over July and August? Demand is definitely slipping in Berkeley during the summer but this fits the seasonal peak vacation period for the average well heeled Berkeley buyer. In other words, the buyers aren’t showing up to look at property in July because they’re on vacation. This mirrors exactly what happened in 2024 when there was a pronounced dip in pending sales beginning the week after July 4 all the way to mid-August. July is definitely the month to shop for a home in Berkeley.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 68
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2024 = 50
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,593,875 (17 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,798,819 (32 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The year started out in line with expectations and property was selling in Richmond at an equivalent pace to Oakland and Berkeley. The graph since mid-April shows a market that began performing differently from Oakland and Berkeley, and not in a good way but in late Spring things seemed to stabilize into a better pattern and pending sales have stayed afloat. Demand in Richmond is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property remains normal, however, opportunities are present in the Richmond market. Reach out for more information! It is interesting to note that despite much higher supply, volatile rates, and economic uncertainty, average property value has generally been higher in Richmond in the past few months vs last year.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 156
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2024 = 115
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $818,200 (28 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $733,309 (34 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 67.5 days, and if we separate out townhouses and look only at condos, the average DOM is 74. Days on Market for condos and townhouses is on the high side. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market.
I dropped a podcast episode on May 30 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market; what’s the cause of the current problems and what are the silver linings. Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, July 27, Let’s break it down:
Of the 276 single family residential homes that have an open house, and similar to last week, 5% had a price adjustment, in multiple cities and at multiple price points (all the way to $6,500,000!). The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancelations. We saw an uptick in cancellations of single family home listings in the past week.
Of the 102 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 7% had a price adjustment in the past week in various cities. That’s a good adjustment down from 2 weeks ago which was the highest count of price adjusted condos for the year. Click here for the list. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started last year. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution when properly investigated.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
A total of 54 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points and cities, but with the bulk of cancellations being in Oakland. The cancellation count is down over last week.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 57 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, down 1 units over last week. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 62. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years (when are they not?!). Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain high this year unless the economic outlook becomes dire and a recession is in plain sight. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they don’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or next — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. For a deeper dive into the 2025 mortgage roller coaster and current risks please click here for a recent podcast with mortgage expert Dominic Villa of Castle Hill Mortgage.
There’s an awful lot of talk about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates in September. I want to remind you that it’s extremely unwise to assume a cut to the short-term Fed funds rate will also bring a drop in mortgage rates.
Let’s remind ourselves what happened in September last year. In the run up to September 2024 there was great anticipation that the Fed would cut rates for the first time in years. Let’s please consider carefully what happened: Mortgage rates are driven by investor sentiment. In the run up to September 2024 speculation around a Fed rate cut caused mortgage rates to drop in the couple of months prior to September. Why? Again, investor sentiment. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the anticipated rate cut ahead of the actual rate cut. When the Federal Reserve actually cut the rate in September mortgage rates initially ticked up causing massive confusion among consumers. The bond market has been behaving outside of normal this year due to government policy, and this Summer we have new legislation that likely adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen.
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines (or increases), mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern. I sat down on July 3rd to podcast with mortgage advisor Faramarz Moeen-Ziai, VP at Cross Country Mortgage, to get his take on the situation and the data he’s looking at over the summer that will inform him with respect to investor sentiment and mortgage rates. Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”. I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai, extremely useful. This week he lets us know how consequential next week's monthly jobs report will be. The monthly jobs report is a cornerstone of market movement that almost always generates one of the biggest trading days of the month. Worth a read!
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.