July 5-6, 2025
Weekend Open Homes & Market Analysis
The weekly update from The Home Factor Team of Realtors for the weekend of Saturday July 5, 2025, and Sunday July 6, 2025.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.
For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we're happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.
For this week’s Saturday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.
Happy July 4th weekend! Summer season is upon us and the summer slump in demand that typically arrives in mid-June and lasts into late July-early August, is here again, as predictable each year as the Bay Area fog that accompanies it. There’s a dramatic dip in open homes this week due to the July 4 holiday. If I were shopping for a home and hadn’t been successful in the market so far this year, I’d be rolling up my sleeves right about now and preparing for success. Inventory hits a low-point each calendar year in the first week of July and begins to pick up again all the way into late September but it’s not unusual for demand to lag behind increasing inventory until mid-August. July will see opportunities for the diligent buyer. In addition, mortgage rates have lowered to an 8 month low in anticipation of a Fed rate cut in September. The situation appears to bear an uncanny resemblance to last year's pattern. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section.
Inventory levels are higher in the Inner East Bay this year than we’ve seen for many years although it’s worth noting that the situation has mellowed in Oakland and Berkeley to being equivalent to this time last year. Inventory levels have hugely increased in Richmond, Pinole, and Hercules over this time last year. Oakland property value slipped slightly in May but recovered some ground in June. The inventory situation is different in Richmond though where active inventory is almost double what it was last year although, interestingly, average property value increased in Richmond in June. This year I’ve been concerned that we might be heading into a situation where we have more inventory than we need as we cross into summer, especially when coupled with a problematic sense of the economic outlook. This might hold true in Richmond, Hercules, and Pinole, but the concern for Oakland has eased in this regard, and is simply no longer a concern for Berkeley though I would expect some easing in terms of multiple offers count, and a modest increase in Days On Market in Berkeley during the summer slump period mentioned above, and certainly some listings will underperform and create stress for their owners. Investor optimism is what is required for relief in the money markets and for mortgage rates to become less volatile.
It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6.5%+ are the new normal, but new homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.
Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.
I have noted last year's count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last. This week's supply of active inventory is down over last week in all of our Inner East Bay cities. Pending Sales are staying afloat. The rate at which homes are going under contract (aka absorption) has generally been keeping pace with supply in the Inner East Bay especially for well presented and well priced homes.
NEW FEATURE! Average Sales Price Year over Year: We’ve added a new feature above the chart for each of our 3 biggest Inner East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond. The data is for the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.
Our Inner East Bay market remains a hot market relative to many parts of the country. Our focus during the summer will be on whether or not demand continues to keep pace with available listings.
The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, making the average over the past 2 months 58%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion's share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.
Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses.The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year. The number of available homes moved up in June (a bump in active listings exactly in the middle of June seems to be a feature every year) and similar to last year the first week in July shows a dip. Property is going under contract at a healthy pace. Are we starting to see some tariff & economy related hesitation in demand? I don’t think so. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property continues to be a feature of the Oakland market. It’s worth noting that between higher supply, volatile rates, and economic uncertainty, property value in Oakland is generally holding steady YoY.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 497
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2024 = 498
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $$1,093,891 (26 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,197,924 (34 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The number of available homes is down by 10 units this week over last. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Demand in Berkeley is strong, stronger than in any other market in the Inner East Bay at this time. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re seeing truly record setting prices for property going under contract in Berkeley in the current market: As much $1,400 per sq ft is not unheard of. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values are higher in Berkeley vs same time last year. The chart shows a notable shrinking of the gap between active and pending sales.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 60
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2024 = 52
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,657,833 (13 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $1,571,214 (25 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes, not including condos or townhouses. The year started out in line with expectations and property was selling in Richmond at an equivalent pace to Oakland and Berkeley. The graph since mid-April shows a market that began performing differently from Oakland and Berkeley, and not in a good way but in late Spring things seemed to stabilize into a better pattern and Pending Sales have stayed afloat. Demand in Richmond is generally quite strong and multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property remains normal, however, opportunities are present in the Richmond market. Reach out for more information! It is interesting to note that despite much higher supply, volatile rates, and economic uncertainty, average property value in Richmond is better than this time last year.
To highlight the increase in inventory this year over last:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 147
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2024 = 90
New Feature!
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $748,167 (32 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2024 = $711,400 (10 DOM)
Condos & Townhomes
Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently at 62.5 days, the same as it’s been for a few weeks, but if we separate out townhouses and look only at condos, average DOM is 76. Days on Market for condos and townhouses is on the high side. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below. It's a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Insurance concerns are causing an upward pressure on HOA dues as well, potentially putting the health of even the most financially sound HOA reserves at risk over the next several years. Please let us know if you’d like more detail on this aspect of the market.
I dropped a podcast episode on May 30 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market; what’s the cause of the current problems and what the silver linings are. Click here to listen.
Open Homes for Sunday, July 6, Let’s break it down:
Of the 229 single family residential homes that have an open house, and similar to last week, 9% had a price adjustment, in multiple cities and at multiple price points. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancelations.
Of the condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6% had a price adjustment in the past week in various cities. That number has been trending down over the past few weeks. Click here for the list. In various parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started last year. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There continues to be significant opportunity in the current, weakened condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
A total of 49 listings were canceled from the Multiple Listing service in the past 7 days across all price points and cities, but with the bulk of cancellations being in Oakland. The cancellation count has been trending down over the past few weeks, especially for single family homes.
Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 70 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, up 10 units over last week. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 68.5. I was hoping to see a decline or leveling in Coming Soon’s until around mid-July and it seems as though it’s occurring. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
Home mortgage rates have been top of mind for consumers in the past few years (when are they not?!): There’s an awful lot of talk about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates in September. I want to remind you that it’s extremely unwise to assume a cut to the short-term Fed funds rate will also bring a drop in mortgage rates.
Let’s remind ourselves what happened in September last year. In the run up to September 2024 there was great anticipation that the Fed would cut rates for the first time in years. Let’s please consider carefully what happened: Mortgage rates are driven by investor sentiment. In the run up to September 2024 speculation around a Fed rate cut caused rates to drop in the couple of months prior to September. Why? Again, investor sentiment. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the anticipated rate cut ahead of the actual rate cut. When the Federal Reserve actually cut the rate in September mortgage rates initially ticked up causing massive confusion among consumers. Are we seeing a repeating pattern this year? Rates have improved recently but the bond market has been behaving outside of normal this year due to government policy, and this week brought us a Big Beautiful Bill that likely adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen.
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increases, typically so too do mortgage interest rates, and as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond declines (or increases), mortgage interest rates typically follow the same pattern. I sat down on July 3rd to podcast with mortgage advisor Faramarz Moeen-Ziai and get his take on the situation and the data he’s looking at over the summer that will inform him with respect to investor sentiment and mortgage rates. Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.
Here’s a recap of recent real estate mortgage market dynamics: Mortgage interest rates are not expected to fall this year unless the economic outlook becomes dire and a recession is in plain sight. Fannie Mae economists said Thursday Feb 20 they don’t expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drop below 6.5% this year or next — a prediction in line with a Feb. 19 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. In recent months we’ve seen the lowest mortgage rates since last October, and then a total about face to the highest rates in recent months, and then another lowering. This is the very definition of a roller coaster. For the most part, the financial markets had been responding to tariff news by selling stocks and buying bonds, but recently the bond market has become compromised. This is unprecedented, and so too is the move by Moody’s to downgrade the US Credit Rating. For a deeper dive into the mortgage roller coaster and current risks please click here for a recent podcast with mortgage expert Dominic Villa of Castle Hill Mortgage.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.