June 28 East Bay Real Esate weekend Update
June 28, Sunday Open Homes List.
We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.
*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.
What I’m seeing in the market this week.
Everyone wants to know the best time to buy real estate. Things can get wacky as we cross into July. Notice anything funny about the Berkeley graph for this week, below? Berkeley's market finally showed its first meaningful sign of a summer slowdown this week. While active inventory edged slightly higher after weeks of decline, pending sales experienced their sharpest weekly drop since spring began. Importantly, closed sales remained relatively steady, suggesting demand hasn't disappeared so much as paused for the holiday and vacation season. If history is a guide, this may represent the beginning of Berkeley's typical midsummer lull before buyer activity resumes in late August.
Since April 28, the average Berkeley home with at least two bedrooms has sold for $1,952,906 in just 20 days. Those are the homes buyers wanted most.
But here's the opportunity almost nobody is talking about. Today, only 55 single-family homes are for sale across all of Berkeley, and 13 of them have already been on the market for more than three weeks. Priced from $799,000 to $1.95 million, many have become stale in the eyes of other buyers. That doesn't necessarily mean there's anything wrong with them. It often means sellers are becoming more negotiable, creating one of the best opportunities in months for buyers willing to look beyond the newest listings and the Berkeley address they want.
If you are focused on a specific city or neighborhood, reach out and we can talk strategy.
Opportunities: Pro Tip
Older listings (3 weeks+) that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in.
The Big 3: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
I’ve included last year’s active listing counts alongside this year’s for Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond to show how inventory has changed year over year. For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.
Note about Berkeley: Zone Zero Defensible Space enforcement rolls-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.5% range are likely the 2026 baseline. Buyers can refinance if rates fall, while lower rates often support rising home values. Combined with principal paydown, homeownership compounds wealth over time, which is why homeowners typically build far more wealth than renters.
For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.
Open Homes - The Numbers
Oakland accounts for 55% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 57% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen here.
Let’s Get Granular: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond
Included below is the average price for a specific type of single family home over the past two weeks (most notably, bedrooms with more than one bathroom), compared to this time last year. Days on Market (DOM) is included because longer selling times tend to align with softer year over year values.
Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Oakland inventory has leveled off, but homes are selling more slowly. It's a highly segmented market, with higher-value neighborhoods and homes over $1M generally outperforming the sub-$1M market. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract buyers, with renewed strength in Rockridge and Temescal. Fire insurance concerns are also softening demand in higher-risk hillside areas. Please reach out if you'd like insight into how your specific neighborhood is performing.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 373
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 534
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,182,464 (36 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,227,741 (22 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Berkeley continues to lead the East Bay in buyer competition and market intensity, with low inventory and multiple offers common for immediately popular and well-priced homes. The market is increasingly split: homes in the Flats often sell for $1,200+ per square foot, while many Hills properties in higher fire-risk areas trade closer to $750 per square foot. The best homes continue to sell quickly, while demand in the Hills is noticeably more selective. As a reminder, price per square foot generally declines as home size increases.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 55
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 70
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,858,733 (17 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,628,814 (16 DOM)
Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.
Richmond remained stable into mid- June when a summer slowdown started to appear just as active homes spiked. Average days on market have fallen back to 78, in line with this year's seasonal average. The familiar pattern continues: the best homes sell quickly, while the remaining inventory takes longer to find buyers. Demand is especially strong in Richmond North & East and The Annex, where recent listings attracted an average of 20 offers, with prices now exceeding last year's highs.
*The average sold price below is not representative of Richmond as a whole. For a more accurate picture, please request neighborhood-specific market data.
Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 78
Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 162
Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:
*Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $635,833 (18 DOM)
Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $855,750 (39 DOM)
Price Adjusted Property with a Weekend Open House
Of 232 single family residential homes that have an open house 4% had a price adjustment. Click here for the list. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See more information below on cancellations.
Of 122 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 6% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list. Condo values continue to soften across the Inner East Bay, extending a decline that began in mid-2024. The list of price reductions is always worth reviewing. For buyers, today's condo market presents excellent opportunities, and a well-chosen condo or townhouse can still be an outstanding long-term investment.
Condos & Townhomes
Average days on market (DOM) for condos is 78 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 53. It's difficult to say when condos will finally find a floor, but my guess is it will coincide with mortgage rates falling below 6%. Cancellations are also playing a role, as many listings are withdrawn after about 90 days on market. More on cancellations appears below.
For buyers, however, it's an excellent time to shop for a condo or townhouse. Historically, condos are the last housing segment to recover after a correction, following single-family homes. With the Inner East Bay single-family market appearing to have found its footing amid tight inventory, the condo market may not be far behind.
What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?
I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 talking specifically about the Inner East Bay condo market. 🎧Click here to listen. I recorded a 1-year follow-up on the same topic in May 2026. 🎧Click here to listen.
Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days
Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.
Cancellations often reflect sellers withdrawing underperforming or overpriced listings to relist later or rent instead. They can also present opportunities for buyers, although seller expectations may remain high. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.
Coming Soon
Click here for a list of 43 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon*.
Coming Soon listings remain limited, averaging 53 over the past four weeks. Hidden from public search sites, they may still be available for private showings. Please reach out if one interests you
Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates
In an October 2026 forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association they speculated that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.
How’s That Working Out?
In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, conflict with Iran, and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5% in the recent months but we are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5% for 2026, actually ending at 6.4% this week. The swings along the way have been significant. Continued conflict may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices climb.
What drives rates?
Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.
I find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in his newsletter this week: Big Improvements Don’t Always Require Big News.
For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a podcast suggestions for you:
To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.
In February I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. 🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.
That’s the wrap up for this weekend!
Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?
Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.
Learn more at:thehomefactor.com
Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com
Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898