Monthly report · No.17
FRIDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
July 2025 was a weaker month than July 2024: We saw fewer listings, fewer sales, lower prices, and more Days On Market (DOM) Year-over-Year (YoY). Overall inventory is up and in many (but not all!) cities we are seeing greater opportunity for buyers to get into contract on favorable terms.
July saw a 7.7% YoY decrease in the number of new listings from July 2024 and a 5% decrease in the number of listings sold. In July 2024 the Average DOM was 25 days and the Median DOM was 15 days. In 2025 the Average DOM was 34 days and the Median DOM was 18 days. The increase in DOM and the increase in the overall active inventory are the biggest indications that the market is shifting towards favoring Buyers. As we repeat every month - just because it is true in the aggregate does not mean that this is true in every city or neighborhood.
As some of the data points in the above chart are striking I will point out that the percentages produced from small sample sizes are subject to drastic variation. In Albany, for instance, with its 7 homes sold (for both 2025 and 2024) - the median price per square foot was $1,110 in 2025 vs $1,065 in 2024. This demonstrates that some of this data is skewed simply by smaller homes being sold this year versus last year. For the entire region studied, the average sold price has only decreased by 0.35% YoY (vs a 5.9% decrease in the median price). Kensington is another area where the sample size is so small as to be almost meaningless - only 3 homes sold in all of July, each of a distinct character and with differing structural conditions, not to mention view vs no view, etc.
So while prices have not seen any meaningful decrease, we saw less velocity in the market for June and July. For buyers that are not looking at the hottest parts of the market (the most competitive neighborhoods, the nicest home in a given neighborhood), there are more opportunities to avoid competition. For sellers, the importance of proper preparation and quality marketing cannot be overstated.
As we go into the post Labor Day market however it’s worth noting that rates in the past few weeks in August are at their best since October 2024 and mortgage applications have reportedly started to increase.
Please reach out for information specific to your neighborhood and housing style of interest. We’re never too busy to review the data!
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
What’s in a Credit Score, Anyway?
Whether you’re dreaming of your first home or thinking about refinancing, your credit score is a key part of the mortgage puzzle. But what is it, really? A random number from the credit gods? A test you forgot to study for? Not quite. Let’s break it down and take the mystery (and fear!) out of the credit score.
Your credit score consists of five components. Here’s the not-so-secret formula the credit bureaus use.
Payment History – 35%
Have you paid your bills on time? This is the biggest piece of your score. An occasional slip-up won’t ruin your score. Consistency is key. Set up auto-pay or use calendar reminders—your future self will thank you.
Amounts Owed on Revolving Accounts – 30%
Also known as credit utilization. This is where consumers have the most control and can improve their scores quickly. If your credit limit is $10,000 and you’ve charged $7,000, that’s 70% usage, which will lower your score. Do your best to keep balances under 30%, or even better, under 10%. Paying down credit card balances—even just a few hundred dollars—can significantly raise your score. It’s one of the fastest and most effective ways to improve your credit health. Start with the cards with the lowest limits, since those take the fewest dollars to make the biggest impact.
Length of Credit History – 15%
The longer your accounts have been open, the better. That old credit card you never use? Keep it open—it’s quietly helping more than you think.
New Credit – 10%
Opening too many accounts in a short time can hurt your score. One inquiry is no big deal but avoid things like applying for multiple store cards during the holidays.
Credit Mix – 10%
Lenders like to see a blend of credit types—credit cards, auto loans, student loans, etc. You don’t need them all, but a little variety shows you can manage different responsibilities.
Credit Score Myths—Busted
Myth #1
Checking your credit score hurts your credit.
False! Checking your own score is a soft pull and has zero impact. Monitoring your credit is a smart move.
Myth #2
You need to carry a balance to build credit.
Nope! You can pay off your card in full every month and still build strong credit. In fact, you’ll avoid interest charges too.
Credit Isn’t Fixed—It’s a Tool
Your credit score isn’t permanent - it’s a snapshot that changes over time. With a little attention and strategy, you can improve it and open doors to better financial options. I’ve seen people turn things around faster than they thought possible.
Got questions? Want to know how your score fits into your homebuying goals. Or tips on improving your score? Let’s talk! You can reach out to me at Evelyn.Freitas@rate.com
SUBSTACK: IS IT TIME TO BUY A CONDO IN THE INNER EAST BAY
By Declan Spring
To be better aligned with popular trends, I created a Substack! This extremely up to the weekly post will make you the real estate expert at parties with brilliant insights such as the average sold price in the past 2 weeks for single family homes in each of our 3 biggest Inner East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond. Please click here to subscribe.
Here’s my most recent Substack article: Inner East Bay Condos: Close to the Bottom?
After years of sliding values and soaring HOA dues, Inner East Bay condos may finally be near their price floor.
For several years now, condos in the Inner East Bay have been losing value. But I believe we’re close enough to the bottom of the cycle that it’s worth considering a condo purchase. Let me explain why.
Single-Family Homes: Resilient and Stabilized. Home values for single-family houses in the East Bay hit their peak during the pandemic, when interest rates were artificially low. Once rates spiked from about 3% to 8% in just four months during mid-2022, prices started an 18-month slide. Since then, rates have eased slightly, and by 2025 single-family values have largely stabilized. This market has shown impressive resilience.
Condos: A Different Story. Condos didn’t fare as well. During the pandemic, shared amenities were often closed, and buyers prioritized private outdoor space. Then, starting in late 2022, insurance problems hit—both nationally and here in California. With tighter insurance renewals and new requirements from Assembly Bill 326, many condo complexes saw rapid increases in HOA dues.
I’ve reviewed a sample of complexes across several East Bay cities, and the numbers are striking: over the past eight years, monthly HOA dues have climbed by about 60% on average, with some complexes seeing increases closer to 90%.
Where Values Stand Today. Current condo values in the Inner East Bay are now roughly in line with prices from 2016 to 2018. And there seems to be a direct connection between HOA dues and value:
Complexes with HOA increases closer to 90% are priced today like they were back in 2016.
Complexes with increases closer to 60% are more aligned with 2018 pricing.
For context, interest rates in 2017 and 2018 averaged about 4.2% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Today we’re averaging closer to 6.5%.
Have Condos Hit Bottom?We can’t say with certainty, but there are encouraging signs. San Francisco often serves as a bellwether for our market. With tech companies enforcing return-to-office policies and AI driving a surge in investment, SF rents have jumped by double digits in just a few months, and condo values there are already rebounding.
Meanwhile, with East Bay single-family home values stabilizing, buyers waiting for a price dip may need to reset their expectations. Add in the possibility of slight relief on mortgage rates, and we could see condo demand pick up in early 2026.
The Market in Numbers
In 2018, condos in the Inner East Bay averaged 25 days on market.
Today, the average is 67 days, which is even longer than last year.
Last year, condos sold faster and at higher values. The current slowdown isn’t because demand has vanished—it’s because today’s listing prices aren’t lining up with what buyers are actually willing to pay.
Bottom Line. Condo values in the Inner East Bay appear very close to the bottom. I believe buyers who purchase within the next six months may find themselves with real bragging rights in just a few years.
NATIONAL DEBT =
HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES?
By Declan Spring
The new “One Big Beautiful Bill” adds trillions to the U.S. debt — and that means borrowing costs across the board are likely to stay high. While mortgage rates won’t fall back to 3% anytime soon (ever, perhaps), lenders may ease up on the extra risk cushion they’ve been charging. Translation: rates could inch down closer to 6%, offering a little relief in an otherwise “higher for longer” world.
What the National Debt Means for Housing
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” will add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. That might sound far away from real estate, but here’s why it matters for housing.
Higher debt = higher borrowing costs.
When the government borrows more, it competes with everyone else for money. That pushes interest rates up across the board — including mortgages. Economists expect rates on 10-year Treasuries (the benchmark that mortgages follow) to climb, which means we’ll likely be living in a “higher for longer” world when it comes to borrowing.
The housing market is already frozen.
We’ve been stuck at about 4 million existing home sales a year — the lowest since the 1990s — thanks to the double whammy of high prices and high mortgage rates. Fewer people are selling because so many are locked into the sub 3% rates they snagged a few years ago.
A small silver lining.
Oddly enough, this new bill could help narrow the gap between Treasury rates and mortgage rates. Lenders have been charging extra because they worry homeowners will refinance the moment rates drop. But if it’s clear that rates won’t be crashing anytime soon, lenders may relax a bit, which could help bring mortgage rates down closer to 6% (instead of hovering above 7%).
The bottom line: expect borrowing to stay expensive, but there’s a chance mortgages won’t feel quite as punishing as they have.
If you would like the source material for this opinion please reach out!
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AVAILABLE! OPEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, 2 PM TO 4:30 PM
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2 BEDROOMS, 2+ BATHROOMS, 1,523 SQ FT - CLICK HERE FOR THE PROPERTY WEBSITE
88 MARINA LAKES DR, RICHMOND, CA, 94804 - LISTED FOR $425,000
AVAILABLE! OPEN SUNDAY, 2 PM TO 4:30 PM - CONDO
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2601 COLLEGE AVE, #205, BERKELEY, CA 94704 - LISTED FOR $639,000
AVAILABLE! OPEN SUNDAY, 2 PM TO 4:30 PM - CONDO
An Elmwood Condo, Minutes From UC Berkeley - Opportunity knocks! Own the best-priced two-bedroom condo in Berkeley’s historic Mark Twain building—perfectly tucked between UC Berkeley, Elmwood, and Rockridge.
Step inside this bright, spacious second-floor home and enjoy a private north-facing balcony, an updated kitchen and bath, and the ease of elevator access in a secure, well-maintained building with deeded parking and storage.
2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATHROOM, 759 SQ FT, WITH PRIVATE BALCONY - CLICK HERE FOR PROPERTY WEBSITE
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591