Monthly report · No.14
FRIDAY, MAY 23, 2025
the state of the market
The Housing Factor
By Ehsan Habib
*Data is sourced from the MLS and considers detached Single-Family Homes
Nationally, housing prices are up 1.2% Year over Year (YoY). You can find headlines boasting that California home prices have reached an all-time high. Redfin tracks that San Francisco and Oakland are the #5 and #9 most competitive cities in the US, respectively. However, we are far from experiencing a universally “hot market”. The underlying conditions that we’ve cited as leading to a shift in the market seem to be gaining in strength.
Consistent with every other month of 2025, April saw a Year over Year (YoY) increase in the number of new listings to hit the market. 677 new Single Family Residences (SFRs) hit the market this April - a 9.2% YoY increase. We track new listings and pending home sales closely (see below, Declan’s “Substack article), and so far demand has done a decent job of keeping up with supply. El Cerrito, Albany, Berkeley, and Alameda all sit at under 2 months supply of inventory (this is very strong). Home sales are up 8.5% YoY.
Looking at the Inner East Bay as a whole, we can’t maintain the “hot market, prices up!” narrative. Overall inventory has continued the upward trend that it began in 2024, and we are sitting at the highest level of inventory since November 2011.
In the macro sense, buyer demand is strong in the Inner East Bay and inventory is tight (relative to the rest of the nation). But there is a shift underway. Prices and competition spiked dramatically over the pandemic and the accompanying ultra-low interest rate environment. Low inventory has helped sellers cling to the high prices they expected. But as more homes hit the market, supply and demand must move towards an equilibrium. We expect the rest of 2025 to continue on as an unbalanced market. Well presented and well priced homes will continue to get multiple offers, while other sellers will be frustrated by their inability to find a buyer willing to pay the Zestimate price for their home.
I am outspoken in my stance that housing, as with most essentials (such as groceries and healthcare), is simply becoming more expensive. Housing is less affordable than it has been at any other point in history. It would take huge policy changes to reverse that trend. But the imbalance between the more and less desirable areas must inevitably shift.
The data and trends are granular and different for each city and neighborhood. Whether buying or selling, reach out to us anytime for a consultation personalized to your situation and interests. We’re always happy to hear from you and provide you with data and strategies for meeting success in today's market.
Mortgage news
MORTGAGE MUSINGS
By Evelyn Freitas | VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate NMLS 247578
Wavigating Uncertainty: What You Can Control in Today’s Market
Last month, we talked about the volatility in the mortgage market—interest rates are up, inventory is shifting week to week, and financial headlines are stirring up uncertainty. But here’s the good news: even in unpredictable times, there’s still a lot you can control.
If buying a home is part of your future plans, here are smart steps you can take today to prepare—so you're ready when the right opportunity comes along.
Get Preapproved Now
If you're planning to buy within the next 6–12 months, getting preapproved now gives you a clear understanding of your budget and the loan strategies that best fit your needs. It also puts you in a stronger position to move quickly when the right home hits the market. Preapproval shows sellers you're serious—and helps you shop with confidence.
Boost Your Credit Score
Your credit score directly impacts your interest rate and the loan programs available to you. Focus on paying down balances, avoiding late payments, and holding off on opening new credit lines. A little effort now can save you thousands over the life of your loan.
Build or Replenish Your Savings
Beyond your down payment, you’ll want to plan for closing costs, moving expenses, and cash reserves. Start setting aside a little each month—every bit helps. You don’t need 20% down to buy, but having funds ready makes you a stronger buyer.
Keep Your Financial Profile Steady
Now’s not the time for big financial moves. Avoid major purchases, job changes, or new credit accounts while you’re preparing to buy. Lenders look for consistency, and a stable financial profile works in your favor.
Explore Loan Options
There are excellent loan programs available that offer reduced interest rates or assistance with down payment and closing costs. Many buyers are surprised to find out they qualify. An experienced mortgage broker can walk you through your options and help you discover programs you might not have considered.
Understand the Market
The more familiar you are with local trends, neighborhoods, and pricing shifts, the better prepared you’ll be to spot a great opportunity—and act on it. This newsletter and The Home Factor’s weekly market updates are great ways to stay informed.
Ask Questions
It’s completely normal to have questions—especially if you’re buying your first home or getting preapproved for the first time. Do not hesitate to ask! Learning the process now puts you in a stronger position later. Informed buyers make confident decisions.
Let’s Stay in Touch
The market may be unpredictable, but your preparation doesn’t have to be. Focus on what you can control, and you’ll be ready when the time is right.
Have questions? I'm just a message away. Reach out anytime at evelyn.freitas@rate.com—I’m here to help.
Our Promise: Up To The Minute East Bay Real Estate Data Straight to Your Inbox
By Declan Spring
I’ve been keeping a blog for the past year on our website. I spend hours every week pouring over Inner East Bay real estate market data trying to understand what’s just occured in terms of supply and demand, what’s happening in real time, and what might happen next. Market evolution is my jam! Recently though it occured to me that maybe nobody uses the word blog anymore.....
Feeling every bit my 52 years of age, I take some measure of satisfaction (and relief) in having come to this conclusion my self, before either of my kids could gently pull me over to the corner of the room and let me know that I’m embarrassing them with all of this blog talk.
SUBSTACK
Again, without having to be gently pulled aside, it occurred to me that if I subscribe to multiple subtacks then perhaps that’s the platform to move my weekly open home and market data to. And so I did! I’m very pleased to share the launch of The Home Factor’s Substack. This extremely up to the weekly post will make you the real estate expert at parties with brilliant insights such as the average sold price for a single family home in Oakland (2bed/2bath to 3bed/2bath) in the past past 2 weeks was $1,085,688 [averaging 36 days on market], whereas for the same 2 week period last year it was $1,235,800 [averaging 16 DOM]. Please click here to subscribe.
Mortgage Market Chaos: Navigating Rates, Tariffs, and Policy Uncertainties
In a recent episode of The Mostly Real Estate Podcast, mortgage expert Dominic Villa pulls back the curtain on today's chaotic lending landscape, revealing truths that every homeowner and buyer needs to understand.
What happens when global politics, tariff wars, and housing policy collide? You can listen to the episode by clicking here.
New Listing Alert!
A Mayflower Blooms on Mayflower Drive, Castro Valley-
Open Sat/Sun May 24/25 2 PM to 4:30 PM
Castro Valley - Overlooking Lake Chabot Regional Park, this 1954 home underwent a stunning renovation from 2021–2024 and is ready to shine for years to come. With an open-concept modern kitchen and living area, a separate family room, and a west-facing sunset deck that is the jewel in the crown of this 3 bedroom home, this bright bloom on Mayflower Drive is a true gem.
We are The Home Factor, REALTORS®, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, and beyond.
Declan Spring · Declan@thehomefactor.com
(415) 446-8591 · DRE#01398898
Denitsa Shopova · Denitsa@thehomefactor.com
(510) 220-1634 · DRE#02137852
Ehsan Habib · Ehsan@thehomefactor.com
(510) 730-4516 · DRE#02166899
GUIDING AND INSPIRING PEOPLE TO INCREASE THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND LOVE OF LIFE THROUGH WELL DESIGNED HOME OWNERSHIP
The Home Factor • DRE#01398898 • Powered by Keller Willams • 2089 Rose St, Berkeley, CA 94709 • Declan@TheHomeFactor.com · (415) 446-8591